The US-Iran war continues, with many experts warning that President Donald Trump is trapped with no end in sight.
While fighting between the two countries has paused, no ceasefire has been announced, meaning that kinetic action could resume at any time. Iran has also put forward a list of demands to be met before it reopens the Strait of Hormuz, with officials believing they are in a stronger negotiating position today.
Iran’s list includes the end of the blockade, reparations for the damages caused, and the release of frozen assets. Iran also wants the US to remove its millitary from its neighborhood.
Top experts like the University of Chicago’s Robert Pape and John Mearsheimer warn that he has no easy way out. Some of the top options he faces include:
Trump Can Decide to Escalate the War
One of Trump’s options is escalation. This is something he has constantly warned. Earlier this month, he warned that he would bomb Iran’s key infrastructure like power plants and bridges.
Trump then backed off, arguing that he had been requested by Iran and Gulf allies to pause the attacks. The reality, however, is that Gulf allies like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are running out of defensive weapons. Recent media reports show that the US is also running out of sophisticated defensive and offensive weapons.
Trump can also decide to launch a ground invasion, potentially to capture an island. Such a move, however, would lead to more US casualties, without achieving any goals.
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Trump Can Decide to Just Abandon the War
Another option is where he decides to abandon the war and claim victory. In this, he would cite the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials. Also, the US has destroyed many Iranian weapons and factories.
The risk, however, is that Iran would be left with the control of the Strait of Hormuz, where it will start making billions of dollars a year charging tolls. Also, leaving the war would attract substantial criticism from neocons and the Israeli lobby in Washington.
Return to Talks With Iran
Trump could also choose to return to negotiations with Iran, using the Memorandum of Understanding as a baseline. The challenge, however, is that Iran no longer trusts the US, having been bombed three times during previous rounds of negotiations: in June last year, on February 28, and again in July.
Iran, therefore, will have some major demands before going back to talks. Most importantly, it will demand a complete ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, and instant financial resources from the United States.
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