President Donald Trump is heading into the final stretch before the midterm elections with an increasingly complicated problem: support is softening inside his own party at the same time that Latino voters, a key part of the coalition that helped return him to the White House, are showing significant dissatisfaction with his second term.
An Economist/YouGov poll found Trump's overall job approval had fallen to 33%, while 62% disapproved. Among Republicans, 79% approved of his performance, still a large majority but the lowest level of his second term. More important for turnout, the share of Republicans who "strongly approve" has fallen from 68% shortly after he took office to 48%.
The weakening is particularly pronounced outside Trump's MAGA core. YouGov found approval among non-MAGA Republicans has fallen substantially since the beginning of the year. A separate Washington Post-Ipsos poll in July found 81% approval among Republicans but just 52% among Republican-leaning independents.
The numbers matter with less than three months before the November elections because Republicans are already confronting an enthusiasm problem. The Washington Post reported in July that GOP strategists were concerned about turnout among even some core voters. A separate Post-Ipsos survey found intense opposition to Trump was considerably more widespread among Democrats than intense support was among Republicans.
But Latino voters could make the Republican challenge more difficult.
Trump's gains among Latinos were one of the defining electoral shifts of 2024, particularly in South Florida and other heavily Hispanic areas. Miami-Dade County, for example, voted Republican for president in 2024 for the first time in more than three decades. Democrats now see an opportunity to claw back some of those voters, Reuters reported this spring.
A bipartisan UnidosUS poll released in May found 67% of Latino voters nationally disapproved of Trump's job performance. Even in Florida, where Trump's standing among Hispanics was stronger than nationally, 51% disapproved and 44% approved.
The dissatisfaction does not necessarily mean Latino voters are returning to Democrats, however, an important distinction as both parties fight for an electorate that has become increasingly competitive.
That ambivalence was captured by Gerardo Verdugo, a 24-year-old Mexican candy shop owner in Colorado who voted for Trump in 2024. Verdugo told Reuters in June that tariffs had raised costs for his business while immigration enforcement had also contributed to his disappointment.
"I'm just kind of in the middle right now," Verdugo told Reuters.
His uncertainty illustrates the potential danger for Republicans. The party does not necessarily have to lose a former Trump voter to a Democrat to suffer electorally. If voters who turned out for Trump in 2024 become less motivated and stay home in November, Republicans could still feel the impact in close congressional races.
The economy remains central to that equation.
UnidosUS found that the cost of living was the leading issue affecting Latino voters' opinions of Trump, followed by immigration arrests and deportations, jobs and the economy, and the war in Iran. In Florida, those same issues dominated voters' concerns.
Economic frustration is increasingly showing up among Republicans as well. The University of Michigan's preliminary August consumer survey showed overall sentiment dropping 7.6% from July. The Financial Times also reported this weekend that a majority of registered voters said they were financially worse off than when Trump began his second term, while Trump's net approval among Republicans had fallen eight points in a month.
The prolonged war with Iran represents another point where Latino and Republican concerns intersect.
An AP-NORC poll released in late July found Republican approval of Trump's handling of Iran had fallen from about 71% in June to 61%. Just 28% of U.S. adults approved of his handling of the conflict, while roughly two-thirds said the war had not been worth fighting.
Immigration presents a more complicated political calculation. Republicans generally continue to give Trump stronger marks on immigration than on the economy or Iran. But aggressive deportation policies could carry different consequences in heavily Latino districts.
That tension is already visible in South Florida. Republican Rep. María Elvira Salazar, whose district includes a large Hispanic population, has promoted legislation that would provide legal status to some undocumented immigrants while arguing that the proposal remains compatible with Trump's border agenda. Reuters reported in April that Trump's deportation push could create vulnerabilities for Republicans in districts with large immigrant communities.
For Republicans, the immediate question is therefore less whether Trump's coalition has collapsed. It hasn't, but the danger lies in smaller shifts occurring simultaneously: The Republicans who still support Trump but with less intensity, Republican-leaning independents who are increasingly skeptical, and Latino voters who backed him in 2024 but are now frustrated over prices, immigration enforcement or the Iran war.
