President Donald Trump's net approval rating has slipped into negative territory in eleven states Trump carried by at least ten points in 2024 — a shift that pushes his political challenges well past the handful of battlegrounds where erosion was already expected. A rolling online survey from Civiqs, built from more than 120,000 responses collected from registered voters since Trump's return to office in January 2025, puts him at 36 percent approval against 59 percent disapproval nationwide as of July 30 — a net score of -24.
Eleven Red States Turn Negative
Every state Trump won by double digits in 2024 gave him a positive net rating on his first day back in office. That cushion is gone in eleven of them, per the same Newsweek analysis of Civiqs figures.
Florida, a state Trump carried by more than 13 points, now sits at -12 (42 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove). Texas has fallen to -13 (40 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove), and Ohio matches that exact score. Alaska and Iowa post the lowest readings of the group, both at -14. South Carolina comes in at -9, Missouri at -7, Louisiana at -4, Kentucky and Nebraska both at -3, and Mississippi is just barely negative at -1.
The slide didn't happen all at once. In several of these states, disapproval first overtook approval not long after Trump unveiled a sweeping round of new import levies on dozens of countries in early April 2025, a rollout widely dubbed "Liberation Day" at the time.
Kentucky and Missouri moved on a different clock, dipping negative only after Trump authorized joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026, an operation that opened what's now known as the 2026 Iran war and briefly dented Trump's standing with the public more broadly. The split timeline suggests foreign policy, not just pocketbook concerns, has weighed on Trump's numbers in some parts of the country.
Trump's Strongest Territory Is Cooling Too
Even Trump's best turf shows wear. Wyoming, still his top-performing state, has slid to +19 net approval — down from a lopsided +45 at the start of his term. North Dakota tells a similar story in miniature: it opened at +31 and has since fallen to the same +19 mark.
The seven states seen as the genuine 2024 battlegrounds look worse overall than the group above. Georgia posts the steepest deficit anywhere in the country at -22. Michigan and Nevada are tied at -21. Wisconsin sits at -16, Pennsylvania at -18, North Carolina at -15, and Arizona at -12. In short, Trump is now underwater in every state that was truly contested two years ago.
Three Senate Races Sitting on These Numbers
The timing lands hardest on the Senate map, where Democrats need to flip four seats to win a majority this November. Three of the most closely watched contests happen to sit in states where Trump's approval has now gone negative.
In Iowa, Democratic state lawmaker Josh Turek is challenging GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson for the seat retiring Sen. Joni Ernst is leaving behind, a race national Republicans see as central to holding their majority. In Ohio, Democrats are banking on Sherrod Brown, the former senator, to win back a seat now held by Republican Jon Husted, who was appointed to the post earlier in the term. And in Texas, James Talarico, a state representative and the Democratic nominee, is facing off against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in one of the most closely tracked Senate races anywhere in the country. Trump carried all three states comfortably less than two years ago.
Pressed on the numbers, Davis Ingle, the White House's spokesman, pointed instead to Trump's 2024 win as the real evidence of his standing with the public. It's a position the administration has taken repeatedly — that Trump's performance at the ballot box, not week-to-week polling, is the truer gauge of where the country stands.
What Comes Next
With just over three months left before Election Day, this erosion shows Republican anxiety is no longer confined to states Trump won by a nose — it now reaches places he carried with room to spare. Whether that trend holds through November, or fades the way early-term approval slumps sometimes have for past presidents, will help determine how much room Trump has to maneuver for the remainder of his term.
Civiqs is a scientific online polling firm directed by political scientist Drew Linzer and owned by Kos Media. Founded in 2018, it uses large-scale, list-based sampling of a representative opt-in panel of registered voters—rather than informal internet pop-ups—and applies statistical adjustments to track public opinion trends in real time.
