In a move seen by many – including Brazil’s president – as an attack on the country’s sovereignty, the US president, Donald Trump, announced on Wednesday that he intends to impose an additional 50% tariff on Latin America’s largest country from 1 August.
Not only was this the highest rate among this week’s announcements – and aimed at a country with which the US has maintained a trade surplus for 17 years – but the letter sent to the Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, also stood out for its intemperate tone, in contrast to the standard format adopted in letters to other countries.
Trump portrayed the new tariff as retaliation for the legal cases faced by former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is now on trial and could soon be jailed for allegedly leading an attempted coup to overturn his 2022 electoral defeat to Lula. Bolsonaro denies the charges.
What is happening?
On Monday, Trump issued his strongest defence to date of Bolsonaro, claiming that the far-right former Brazilian president, often referred to as the “Trump of the Tropics”, was the victim of a “witch-hunt” aimed at keeping him out of next year’s election. Brazil summoned the US envoy in response to the extraordinary intervention.
On Wednesday, while announcing the new 50% tariff, the US president repeated many of the same arguments and also claimed that Brazil’s supreme court had issued “censorship orders” against US tech companies, accusing the country of “ongoing attacks on the digital business activities of American firms”.
Brazil once again summoned the US envoy and symbolically rejected the letter, while Lula, who on Monday said that Brazil does not accept external interference, issued a new statement rebutting Trump’s claims point by point. His staff are now assessing whether to retaliate against the new tariff.
How is it going down inside Brazil?
Given the US’s longstanding trade surplus with Brazil, which had received the minimum 10% tariff in the April round, the general reaction was one of surprise.
One of Bolsonaro’s politician sons, however, was quick to claim credit for the tariff hike. Eduardo Bolsonaro hailed it as a “success” resulting from the “intense dialogue” he has maintained with members of the Trump administration since March, when he took leave from the lower house and moved to the US.
Business leaders who typically support Bolsonaro, however, were among those most likely to be affected by the tariffs – including sectors such as coffee, meat, textiles, plastics and footwear – and have raised concerns. Bolsonaro’s inner circle was reportedly now working to ensure that the political and economic fallout does not fall on the former president.
What charges is Bolsonaro facing?
Alongside his closest cabinet members, the paratrooper turned populist is being tried for allegedly leading the coup attempt that culminated in the 8 January 2023 riot, when thousands of his supporters ransacked the capital, Brasília.
The far-right leader is also barred from running in next year’s election under a separate ruling by Brazil’s electoral court, after he made baseless attacks on the country’s voting system.
He also faces other cases before the supreme court – including allegations of selling jewellery intended for the presidency and forging a Covid-19 vaccination certificate. Bolsonaro denies all charges.
Could it backfire?
Sociologist Celso Rocha de Barros believes Trump’s move could actually make things worse for Bolsonaro. “One thing that’s rarely a wise move when you’re on trial is to threaten the judge. And that’s basically what Bolsonaro is doing,” he said, arguing that the letter was above all an attempt to intimidate the court, since Lula himself has no power to halt the trial.
For Lula, the turmoil is being seen as an opportunity to recover the president’s faltering popularity, as the 79-year-old leftist has already announced plans to run for re-election.
Hoping for a repeat of Canada’s recent elections – where Liberals gained ground after repeated attacks from the US president – Lula has embraced the defence of a “sovereign Brazil” as a campaign slogan on social media.
If it may benefit Lula, it could hurt Bolsonaro, says Rocha. “Bolsonaro has essentially imposed a tax on the Brazilian people – one that will only help reduce the US fiscal deficit, not Brazil’s,” said the sociologist.
