For the third time since returning to office, President Trump is seeking a nuclear deal with Iran.
- While U.S. officials say the renewed effort is sincere, Trump has veered away from diplomacy and into war once before.
The big picture: Trump heads into the talks planned for Friday with significant leverage: A massive military buildup in the Gulf that presents a credible military threat, and an Iranian regime left weaker and more isolated by massive protests.
- At the same time, U.S. officials are skeptical that Iran's supreme leader is willing to go anywhere close to the conditions Trump has set for any potential deal.
Flashback: The previous set of nuclear talks ended in war, with Trump first tacitly approving Israeli attacks and then directly striking Iran's nuclear facilities in June.
- The second attempt came last fall, when the U.S. tried to use Iran's desire to avoid "snap-back" sanctions to convince the regime to give up its highly enriched uranium.
- That went nowhere. One challenge was that Trump's subterfuge in June left intense distrust in Tehran.
Driving the news: U.S. officials insist Trump's decision to send his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for talks with Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, isn't cover for another surprise attack.
- But the U.S. has moved a wealth of firepower into the region in case Trump does decide on military action.
- He was on the cusp of launching strikes three weeks ago, over the killing of thousands of protesters, but held off.
- As Trump's "armada" moved into place, the protests were quashed, and the momentum was lost.
Behind the scenes: There were doubts in the West Wing about whether U.S. bombs could really bring decisive political change. And there were concerns about Iran's threats of massive retaliation across the region.
- At the same time, Turkey, Qatar, Egypt and other countries undertook an intense diplomatic effort to defuse the situation, eventually producing the meeting planned for Friday in Istanbul.
- Turkey's foreign minister invited several Arab countries to attend as observers.
Split screen: As the U.S. has moved an aircraft carrier and other assets into place, the military plans under discussion have grown much more ambitious.
- Israel had opposed the smaller-scale strikes Trump was considering three weeks ago out of a sense they would merely be symbolic, and not worth the risk of massive retaliation.
- That dynamic has shifted. A succession of Israeli spies and generals — including Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Gen. Eyal Zamir — have visited D.C. in recent days. Zamir briefed Joint Chiefs chairman Gen. Dan Caine on Israel's offensive and defensive plans in the event of war with Iran.
- "It's safe to say that nothing came out of that meeting to change his or the president's mind on attacking Iran," a U.S. official said, referring to Caine and Trump. "It's really the Israelis who want a strike. The president is just not there."
What they're saying: A senior U.S. official said Trump "really does not want to do it."
- Back in June, the president had believed Iran's nuclear activities posed a "legitimate, imminent threat," the official said. "He does not feel that way here."
- Three of Trump's advisers all told Axios they think launching a military option now wouldn't be the right way to go. One of them said that skepticism holds for many in Trump's close orbit.
- Another said a strike right now would only undermine much of the president's agenda in the region and in the world.
- For his part, Trump has said nearly every day over the past week that he's sending "big boats" to the region but also open to talking.
The other side: Iran is stressing ahead of Friday's negotiations that it will only discuss the nuclear issue and not other topics on Trump's agenda, like missiles.
- Even on nuclear matters, the parties appear very far apart.
What to watch: Trump is currently on the diplomatic path, but he might not follow it for long.
- "If Iran doesn't come to the talks on Friday with tangible things, it could find itself very quickly in a very bad situation," a senior official from one of the mediating countries said.
