Gold has already ventured into uncharted territory, surging to record highs above $3,500 per ounce — but the next chapter may open the door to an even more explosive rally.
According to a new note by Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha Dart, the next phase for gold may be less about inflation or interest rates—and more about politics, credibility and trust in U.S. institutions.
Goldman's base case sees gold reaching $4,000 by mid-2026, driven by strong central bank demand, global diversification away from the U.S. dollar, and growing macro uncertainty.
But in a more extreme tail-risk scenario, Dart said prices could surge well above $4,500, especially if the Federal Reserve's independence comes under attack from the Trump administration.
For the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) – which offers a way to get exposure to the precious metal through an exchange trade fund – that could translate into a further 30% rally.
Trump-Fed Tensions: A Gold Catalyst?
Goldman warns that if the Fed is pressured into keeping rates artificially low—or is perceived to be compromised—it could undermine its inflation-fighting credibility.
That could spark higher long-term yields, a weaker dollar, and a rotation out of U.S. assets, Dart said.
In such a scenario, gold, which doesn't rely on institutional trust, could benefit the most.
"Should private investors diversify more heavily into gold, as central banks have done, we see potential upside to gold prices well above our $4,000 mid-2026 baseline," Dart wrote.
Even a slight shift—1% of private U.S. Treasury holdings moving into gold—could lift prices to nearly $5,000/oz, Goldman estimates.
Central Banks Are Leading the Charge, And Broader Commodity Supply Is At Risk
While private investors have yet to make such a dramatic move, central banks already have.
Since the freezing of Russia's dollar reserves in 2022, central bank gold buying has jumped fivefold, Goldman said, fueling a 94% rally in gold since early that year.
This trend is expected to continue for another three to six years, particularly among emerging markets looking to hedge political and financial risk. Goldman's $4,000 price target does not even factor in significant private inflows.
Beyond gold, Goldman sees broader commodity tail risks building due to increased supply concentration. Major production hubs like the Middle East, Russia and China have become flashpoints in trade disputes and conflicts.
Dart highlighted the Panama Canal and Red Sea as recent examples of vulnerable trade routes. Meanwhile, China's dominance in rare earth refining (over 90%) has already been used as a geopolitical lever.
The Bottom Line
Gold has already made history in 2025, but if markets begin to question the Fed's independence—or if geopolitical risks intensify—$4,500 may not be far-fetched.
For Goldman, gold remains the highest-conviction long in the commodities space. And if private investors follow the lead of central banks, the next leg higher could come faster—and harder—than most expect.
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