U.S. officials under President Donald Trump’s first term ran war games to see what the fall of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro might unleash on the oil-rich country, to find that the unclassified simulations projected that Maduro's exit would likely spark violence and chaos as military units, political factions and guerrillas fight for control of the nation.
War Games Warn Of Post-Maduro Chaos
As described on Thursday by The New York Times in a report, Douglas Farah, a Latin America security consultant who joined the exercises at the National Defense University, said officials played out scenarios from a coup to U.S. military action. Farah later warned that Venezuela could face "chaos for a sustained period of time with no possibility of ending it."
Analysts say those findings raise the risks around Trump's second-term pressure campaign. Phil Gunson of the International Crisis Group said in a statement shared with NYT, "The thing that really worries us is that they don't appear to have any serious plan for what happens afterward," adding, "The idea that you're going to be able to slot in a government and everything else will just fall into place, I think is just fantasy." Experts point to earlier U.S. interventions that produced instability.
Hard-Liners Push Tougher Line on Maduro
Hard-liners in Trump's orbit have signaled a tougher line. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has labeled Maduro's alleged "Cartel de los Soles" a foreign terrorist organization, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the move broadens military options as U.S. forces build up in the Caribbean.
Strikes Intensify As Opposition Eyes Transition
Trump has not explained his precise goals. He calls Maduro an outlaw, has moved warships and aircraft within range, and on Monday said he was open to talks but would not rule out a ground invasion aimed at drug trafficking.
Since early September, U.S. forces have carried out at least 21 strikes on boats near Venezuela, killing at least 83 people, Washington says were hauling drugs. As per a report by Al Jazeera, Nobel Prize-winning opposition leader María Corina Machado says she is ready to replace Maduro after what many observers call his 2024 election stolen, promising a rapid transition.
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