The White House sustained two setbacks on personnel this week: pulling its controversial nominee to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics and losing its bid to immediately oust Fed governor Lisa Cook.
Why it matters: The reversals suggest that there are still some guardrails, at least when it comes to critical economic arenas, on President Trump's effort to consolidate power.
- It's just not clear how strong those rails are.
Driving the news: On Tuesday night, the White House withdrew the nomination of E.J. Antoni to run the BLS.
- Both conservative and left-leaning economists had said he was unqualified. Plus, the Heritage economist was under a cloud after CNN reported that he was behind a social media account that posted conspiracy theories.
- Some Republican senators reportedly refused to meet with him, and his meetings with others had gone poorly.
Zoom in: On Wednesday the Supreme Court temporarily blocked Trump's firing of Cook — saying she can remain in her role at the Federal Reserve until the justices hear oral arguments in the case over the White House ability to fire her.
- The Supreme Court signaled last spring that the Federal Reserve was the rare agency that required some independence from the executive branch, but didn't fully explain its reasoning.
Between the lines: Trump has had little difficulty firing the heads, or members, of other independent agencies. Recently the Supreme Court ruled that the president can remove Rebecca Slaughter as a commissioner on the Federal Trade Commission, ahead of any oral argument.
- And Trump has successfully pushed through nominees accused of being unqualified at other agencies.
- But the BLS and Federal Reserve may be in a different league. These are agencies valued for their independence by the business community, not resented for the imposition of regulations, as, say, with the SEC or CFPB.
The big picture: The credibility of the economic statistics that BLS puts out — the jobs report, inflation data — depends on its independence from political control, says Aaron Sojourner, an economist who is part of the Friends of BLS, an advocacy group.
- "If it becomes a creature of the White House, it loses credibility and cannot fulfill its purpose."
- The Federal Reserve is also valued for its remove from political control — as all living former heads of the central bank recently attested.
- "Neither of these agencies are political or should be," says Jai Kedia, a research fellow at the right-leaning Cato Institute.
Zoom out: "The White House has discovered there are limits," says Michael Strain, an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.
- Though he adds, it's hard to say what those limits are. It's not clear what exactly led the White House to pull Antoni's nomination.
- And, the Cook case is not over — the Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments early next year.
Reality check: These two examples could be outliers.
- "Antoni was uniquely unqualified, while BLS is both a bit under the radar politically, and important to the private sector," Stan Veuger, an economist at AEI, said in an email to Axios.
- "Maybe it's a sign a few senators have gotten cold feet more generally, but I'll believe it when I see it."
The other side: "President Trump lawfully removed Lisa Cook for cause from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors," says White House spokesman Kush Desai. "We look forward to ultimate victory after presenting our oral arguments before the Supreme Court in January."
- "President Trump pledged to make our bloated government more efficient and restore trust, accountability and competence in our country's governance. The Administration remains committed to nominating the best and most experienced individuals to deliver on this mandate."
The intrigue: The BLS isn't currently releasing any stats because of the shutdown of the federal government.
What to watch: The Supreme Court is also set to hear a case challenging many of Trump's tariffs. If the conservative justices push back in that arena, it's a clearer sign that there are some economic limits to Trump's efforts.
