On Monday, President Donald Trump arrived in Israel to formalize a historic peace deal and also to take a victory lap as he spoke to the Knesset as the U.S. ally celebrates the release of hostages just over two years since Hamas launched its deadly terror attack on Israel.
Trump has been openly campaigning for the Nobel Peace Prize since he returned to the White House, talking up his supposed skills as a dealmaker and savvy businessman. He notably brought Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to heel after Netanyahu bombed Qatar. He also said that the actual Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, told him, “I'm accepting this in honor of you, because you really deserved it.”
But Trump’s focus on foreign affairs has largely come at the expense of focusing on arguably the most pressing challenge he faces right now: ending the government shutdown.
So far, Trump only had one perfunctory meeting with leaders in Congress before he posted a racist trope video of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries in a sombrero standing alongside Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer saying nobody likes Democrats because of “all of our woke trans bulls*** in an AI fake.
When he later said that he was talking to Democrats about health care, Democratic leaders denied it.
“Look, the president clearly has some kind of dementia,” Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) snarked to The Independent. “So I think there's a – he's probably talking to himself, or thinks he's talking to a Democrat, but I sincerely doubt that that's actually, he's actually physically talking to a Democrat.”
Where the Trump administration has engaged in the government shutdown talks, it’s mostly been through Russell Vought, the director of the Office of Management and Budget, who has announced cancellations of projects and the firing of federal workers. Trump likened him to the grim reaper in a recent Truth Social post.
This has mostly left House Speaker Mike Johnson to fend for himself. This month marks Johnson’s second year since becoming speaker. He emerged amid the bitter blood feud that came after, ironically, former Rep. Matt Gaetz filed a motion to vacate after then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy put a “clean” continuing resolution on the floor in 2023 to prevent a government shutdown.
That set off three weeks of the House being ground to a halt. After the failed bids for speaker by House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, firebrand Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, Johnson emerged as a consensus choice.
Unlike the cocky McCarthy, who consistently antagonized conservatives and Democrats alike, Johnson mostly cloaked himself in civility. During Joe Biden’s presidency, that meant passing aid to Ukraine and working with Democrats to pass spending bills that the Freedom Caucus would spit out. He developed a somewhat working relationship with Jeffries, which would come in handy when Jeffries got Democrats to protect him when Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) tried to stage a coup against him.
Since Trump returned to the White House, Johnson’s leaned on the almost fanatical devotion House Republicans have to the president. Trump convinced Republicans to make him become speaker again. And, of course, Trump served as the iron fist to Johnson’s velvet glove.
But as Trump has largely checked out from the shutdown fight, Johnson — as well as Senate Majority Leader John Thune, for that matter — finds himself increasingly on an island. Greene has lambasted him for not doing anything to fix the coming lapse in enhanced tax credits for the Affordable Care Act marketplace.
In addition, Democrats have criticized him for not swearing in Adelita Grijalva, who won a special election last month to fill the congressional seat her father vacated when he died. Johnson has also elected to keep the House out of session, meaning the pending discharge petition to release files related to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein sits in limbo.
Johnson has held fast and not budged. But over time, he risks an internal revolt if he is not careful. And it would largely be Trump’s fault. At this point, fealty to Trump is the only glue for the Republican conference.
And focusing abroad at the risk of the homefront could pose a risk to Trump’s presidency. George H.W. Bush’s focus on the Gulf War and the end of the Soviet Union meant he missed the growing discontent at home, leading to his loss against Bill Clinton.
Bush’s son George W. Bush risked his entire presidency on the War on Terror, missing the anger Americans felt after Hurricane Katrina and the Great Recession. And Joe Biden’s focus on Ukraine meant he didn’t see the frustration around his age and rising inflation.
Trump can take a victory lap and lobby for a Nobel all he wants. But if he leaves the shutdown to Johnson, the prize might amount to another piece of gold on the gawdy mantle in the Oval Office amid a failed presidency.
