On Nov. 4, the U.S. will have bailed (pretty sure that's the precise diplomatic term) on the Paris climate agreement, but the date's significance depends almost entirely on what happens a day earlier.
Driving the news: Wednesday marks a year since the Trump administration started the one-year countdown required under the pact's rules to formally abandon the deal, though President Trump first announced the plan back in 2017.
Why it matters: If Trump wins Tuesday, pulling out the U.S. — the second-largest greenhouse gas emitter after China — will underscore his reversal of Obama-era international policy and lock it in for years.
- The effects on other nations are unclear, although lately several of the biggest carbon emitters — notably China and Japan — have actually been setting more aggressive long-term targets.
The big picture: Countries set their own emissions targets under the 2015 deal, but it's a venue for setting global rules around things like monitoring and verifying cuts. And it's a key forum to prod nations to implement policies and provide resources to start changing the global emissions trajectory, which is far off track to meet the deal's temperature-limiting goals.
What we're watching: The election! Joe Biden has vowed to quickly bring the U.S. back into the deal — an agreement that Trump calls unfair to the U.S. even though countries set their own pledges.
- Beyond reverting to the status quo, Biden says he'd look to pressure big emitting nations to go further.
- His plan vows to "fully integrate" climate into foreign, national security and trade policy.
The bottom line: "That election could be a make or break point for international climate policy," scientist Niklas Hohne of the Netherlands' Wageningen University tells the Associated Press.
