If Arthur B Culvahouse believed the polls, he might have had his bags packed long ago.
The US ambassador to Australia found himself at Newcastle Airport on Wednesday as his compatriots started counting votes in the most fractious American election in modern times.
Mr Culvahouse, a Donald Trump appointee and a lawyer in the Ronald Reagan White House, admitted his near two-year tenure as the US government's representative in Australia would be over if Mr Trump lost.
"I serve at the pleasure of the president," he told the media in the airport terminal as nearby TV monitors showed Mr Biden taking an early lead in the voting.
"Typically, political appointees like me go home sooner rather than later.
"It's, frankly, the first presidential election in which I have not been an active participant since 1976."
Mr Culvahouse was in charge of Mr Trump's search for a vice-presidential running mate in early 2016.
His boss was, again, performing far better on voting day than the polls had predicted while tweeting that Democrats were trying to "steal" the election.
In a notably rosy view of the political controversy brewing back home, Mr Culvahouse described the election as a "great celebration of the democratic process".
"Regardless of the outcome of our election, support in the United States for the alliance with Australia is deep, it's strong, it's enduring, it's broad-based, it's bipartisan," he said.
Asked whether the election would end in the courts, he said: "Heaven forbid ... I think this election will be decided by the American people.
"I shouldn't say this, but typically the margins are clear, regardless of the outcome. We're in a little bit of an uncharted sea. We've had a massive number of voting by mail."
As the day and evening unfolded, the margin proved anything but clear.
Mr Trump announced that he had won the election, despite counting going on in key states.
He described the vote as a "fraud" and foreshadowed taking the matter to the Supreme Court.
Mr Culvahouse was at Williamtown to run his eye over the RAAF's Wedgetail surveillance program and US-made F-35 joint strike fighters and to meet aerospace industry representatives.
He said 50 Australian firms were involved in the international F-35 program, which will deliver 72 of the planes to Australia.
The US is taking more than 2400.
The new fighter jets are supporting a growing aerospace hub at Williamtown, part of what Mr Culvahouse described as a "strategically reliable" supply chain.
"Each and every one of our major defence contractors views Australia as its first- or second-most important market outside the United States," he said.
Asked about China's recent suspension of Australian coal, wine and other imports, Mr Culvahouse said Australia would "never see the day when a United States ambassador will stand up and threaten Australia with economic coercion, with economic boycotts, because we are upset at Australia's foreign policy".
"We have a relationship that's built on trust."
Mr Trump did, however, withdraw the US's signature from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement when he took office in 2017.
Mr Culvahouse said trade deals had, over time, "eroded the American workforce" and the Trump administration had sought "fair and reciprocal" agreements.
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