Polymarket traders now assign almost zero probability that the Trump administration's proposed national cryptocurrency reserve will become operational in 2025, marking a sharp collapse in confidence after early-year optimism.
White House Policy Announced In March But Lacks Execution
The initiative began on March 6, when the White House issued an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a broader U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile.
The order instructed federal agencies to consolidate Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and other seized digital assets and prohibited the government from selling Bitcoin designated for the reserve.
Days later, President Trump said the reserve would eventually include additional assets such as Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), XRP (CRYPTO: XRP), Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), and Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA).
The remarks sparked brief enthusiasm among retail traders who interpreted the comments as the start of a national accumulation plan.
The order did not authorize government buying, did not allocate public funds, and did not set up a regulatory or custody framework for ongoing accumulation.
Instead, the plan depended solely on seized assets and vague "budget-neutral strategies," leaving no credible path to building a meaningful reserve structure.
Analysts Question Viability Of A National Crypto Reserve
Skepticism surfaced quickly as analysts questioned whether the government could run a sovereign crypto reserve without clear reporting standards, legislative support or basic infrastructure.
Critics warned that consolidating digital assets under federal control could create political risk, fuel speculation, or complicate oversight of the financial system.
Tokens most closely linked to the administration's narrative, including XRP, ADA, and SOL — posted short-lived gains before giving back ground.
However, there is no indication the policy has been revoked.
No document has superseded the March order, and no reversal has been issued.
The reserve remains active on paper but appears to lack operational depth.
Polymarket Prices Collapse As Confidence Evaporates
US National Bitcoin Reserve Probability (Source: Polymarket)
Polymarket contracts tracking a functioning U.S. Bitcoin reserve by year-end traded above 60% in February and March but declined throughout the year before ending at 2% in December.
Contracts tied to an XRP reserve dropped to 1% after briefly trading above 20% in March.
Markets tracking an Ethereum reserve followed a similar path, falling from roughly 30–40% in early March to 1% in December.
Across all three markets, traders are essentially betting that no credible reserve will materialize — meaning no meaningful accumulation, no public balance sheet, and no institutional framework to manage it.
Without those elements, the idea of a strategic national asset remains a political narrative rather than an executable policy.
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