WASHINGTON _ To hear U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Michael Pompeo tell it, the evidence is clear: The novel coronavirus that has killed more than a quarter million people worldwide likely escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a laboratory that studies some of the world's most dangerous pathogens.
But inside the halls of the U.S. intelligence community, the evidence is less definitive, while intelligence agencies around the world are also casting doubt on that theory.
A majority of the 17 agencies that provide and analyze intelligence for the U.S. government believe the pandemic started after the virus was leaked from the Wuhan lab, according to a person familiar with the matter. The agencies, the person said, point to circumstantial evidence that includes "open source" information, meaning publicly available research, including from scientists at the lab, as well as information from other researchers studying the origin of the virus.
Others familiar with the intelligence, however, describe more pronounced divisions among and within the agencies, which often look at the same set of facts but come to different interpretations. Two people familiar with the intelligence said the case for any possible origin is largely circumstantial since the U.S. has very little information from the ground to back up the lab-escape theory or any other.
U.S. Spies See No Human Role in Making or Modifying Coronavirus
What is clear is that the devastation of the outbreak caught Trump off guard. He had planned on campaigning on the strength of the U.S. economy and said virus cases would quickly fall to zero. Now, with almost 70,000 Americans dead from the virus, he's increasingly trying to shift more of the blame toward China.
The Wuhan lab at the center of the debate is known for doing research on bats, a leading carrier of coronaviruses like this one, which adds to the case for this particular pathogen, Sars-Cov-2, to have escaped from there, the person said.
The U.S. government cites open-source reports that the Wuhan lab wasn't adhering to strict safety protocols while studying animals and dangerous viruses. And Chinese officials have continued to obfuscate when the U.S. and other countries have asked to investigate the outbreak and initial response, the person said.
Last week's assessment from the intelligence community ruled out the possibility the virus was man-made. The same report also offered a signal the intelligence community is not aligned on the lab-escape theory, remaining silent on the question of whether the virus escaped from the lab, the "wet market," or somewhere else.
Another possibility is that the virus got its start in one of China's "wet markets" _ sometimes loosely regulated open-air markets where animals are sold for food. There is a wet market in Wuhan, not far from the lab, and the data provided by the Chinese shows clusters of cases between the market and laboratory.
Three European officials with knowledge of the discussions within their governments cast doubt on any narrative suggesting the virus was leaked from the lab, though they said it remains possible researchers in the facility were examining the coronavirus.
