Today in Campaign 2016
Did you get heckled by a preteen, told that an entire state’s population “don’t want you,” questioned about your citizenship and have your spouse grilled about whether you are actually a prominent serial killer who operated in northern California from 1968 to 1970?
If not, you had a better day than Texas senator Ted Cruz, whose attempts to win over last-minute undecided voters in Indiana were as awkward as his attempted handgrab with “running mate” Carly Fiorina:
Less than 24 hours before voting begins in the Hoosier State, all eyes were on the Midwest today. Here are some of the highlights from the campaign trail:
- Cruz said on Monday that he “absolutely” has a path to the nomination if he loses in Indiana, where the victor is expected to gather 40-some delegates. If Donald Trump collects such a prize, he would need to grab about 45% of the remaining pledged delegates to cross the line, very doable for him based on past performance. (And Trump could still get to 1,237 without winning Indiana.) The path Cruz sees to the nomination after an Indiana loss, in short, remains well-hidden to everyone else, and would seem to involve a sudden and drastic shift in momentum in the race of the kind that’s difficult to imagine.
- Hillary Clinton raised more money than Bernie Sanders last month for the first time in 2016, according to end-of-month totals released by the campaigns. Clinton reported a $26m haul for April, while Sanders reportedly took in $25.8m – significantly down from his high-water-marks in February and March, when he took in $43.5m and $44m, respectively.
- Asked to comment on the Internet joke pretending that Cruz is the Zodiac Killer, would-be first lady Heidi Cruz was unbothered. “Well, I’ve been married to him for 15 years and I know pretty well who he is, so it doesn’t bother me at all. There’s a lot of garbage out there,” Cruz said.
- Nominal Cruz running mate Carly Fiorina slipped off a stage at a Cruz rally, although she was apparently uninjured.
That’s it for today - tune in tomorrow for wall-to-wall, up-to-the-second coverage of the Indiana primaries!
Hot on the heels of a piece by CNN’s Dylan Byers that highlights a close relationship between Fox News talk show host Sean Hannity and billionaire Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, the candidate is making an appearance on Hannity’s show this evening in a last-minute bid to pump up his followers ahead of tomorrow’s primary in Indiana.
After touting tomorrow’s election as having “the potential to change the direction of the Republican race,” Hannity asked Trump via satellite why the most recent polls showing him beating Texas senator Ted Cruz in Indiana is “is so important.”
“It’s just been, like, a lovefest,” Trump said of his reception in the Hoosier State, declaring that “it just all ends in Indiana, and then we start against Hillary.”
“Wouldn’t it be better to unify [the party] in the end?” Hannity asked.
“It’s better, but I don’t think it’s necessary,” Trump said.
Carly Fiorina has sent out a fantasy-fueled email to supporters of Texas senator Ted Cruz after his terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad day, asking them to help fund his “surging” campaign ahead of tomorrow’s Republican primary in Indiana, emphasizing that he is “running neck and neck with Trump.”
“Ted’s surging ahead of tomorrow’s Indiana primary - but we can’t win without your help right away,” Fiorina writes. “On the ground, our crowds have been growing and our momentum has reached fever pitch.”
Sidenote: A picture of the crowd at tonight’s Cruz rally tells a different story...
Crowd of a few hundred for Cruz in Indianapolis which was very badly advanced cc: @AdvanceGuyNotes pic.twitter.com/IvbMhsQ4Ry
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) May 3, 2016
“Recent polls show us running neck and neck with Trump in Indiana,” Fiorina continues, apparently using a definition of “neck-and-neck” with which we were previously unaware.
“This is still anyone’s race,” Fiorina concludes. “If we’re going to win we have to keep fighting as hard as possible, right down to the wire - and that’s why Ted and I are counting on you right now.”
A Freudian slip from senior Trump adviser Ed Brookover?
Texas senator Ted Cruz’s dim prospects ahead of the Indiana primary that he himself has called a bellweather for the Republican nomination has had a silver lining: Several within the Republican party have floated him as a potential replacement to fill the vacant seat on the supreme court.
But don’t count Donald Trump as one of the “Justice Cruz” enthusiasts.
In an interview with the Daily Mail, Trump said that “I’d have to think about it,” when asked if he would name Cruz to fill the seat once occupied by conservative icon Antonin Scalia.
“There’s a whole question of uniting and there’s a whole question as to temperament,” Trump said. “He’s certainly a smart guy, but there’s also a temperament issue. He’s got a tough temperament for what we’re talking about; you have to be a very, very smart, rational person, in my opinion, to be a justice of any kind.”
This does not bode well.
Cruz election eve rally in Indianapolis is...not full pic.twitter.com/i3YNfQDRLK
— Rosie Gray (@RosieGray) May 2, 2016
Political commentator and professional opinion-haver Bill Kristol has been one of the loudest voices of the #NeverTrump movement - although in an interview on Newsmax, Kristol indicated that “never” basically means “¯\_(ツ)_/¯.”
When host Steve Malzberg asked Kristol whether there was anything that the billionaire Republican frontrunner could do to earn his support, Kristol said that Trump’s character deficits were almost too high a barrier to clear.
“It’s more of a matter of character, and I don’t know that you can change your character at age 69,” Kristol said. “And given the things he’s said, even very recently, about other people, the way he demeans other people.”
That all being said...
“I mean, I guess never say never,” he continued. “On the one hand, I’ll say #NeverTrump, and on the other hand, I’ll say, ‘never say never.’”
Conservative talk-radio host and would-be media titan Glenn Beck - remember him? - has called on his supporters to join him “for a day of prayers, fasting and humility” for Texas senator Ted Cruz ahead of the Indiana Republican primary tomorrow.
In a long and meandering Facebook post, the onetime Fox News host asks his fans, “beginning Monday night and running for 24 hours ending on Tuesday will you pray and if possible fast like you have never done before?” (All sic.)
“Join me and my family in praying and fasting for our nation and our God to look down and forgive us of our misguided ways,” Beck continues in the post, with a sample prayer one might use in asking the almighty for guidance ahead of the nomination contest:
“Help us Lord to return to you and have the bravery to do the hard thing - to Trust in You and to do our part by standing firm in the eternal truths that Got us here in the first place.”
Cruz currently lags behind billionaire frontrunner Donald Trump in every major poll of the Hoosier State. On top of that, the Texas senator was today heckled by a child, quizzed about his birthplace and faced questions over whether he’s a serial killer.
'America is a better country without you': Ted Cruz's very bad day
The Texas senator was heckled by a child, quizzed about his birthplace and faced questions over whether he’s a serial killer, reports the Guardian’s Alan Yuhas - all while polling behind in Indiana.
Politicians who run for president are used to scorn, mockery and a healthy skepticism from the American people. But few have been heckled by a 12-year-old, questioned about their Canadian birth, or had their spouse field questions about their resemblance to a serial killer. All in one day.
Ted Cruz suffered all this and more on Monday in Indiana, a state where he desperately needs to do well if he wants to preserve any hope of winning the Republican nomination for president. Simple arithmetic eliminated Cruz from an outright victory two weeks ago, but he has clung to the possibility that he could deny Donald Trump the 1,237 delegates a candidate needs to win the primary election.
The trouble started with a 12-year-old in La Porte, Indiana. At a rally there, a boy shouted “You suck!” and “Shut up!” during Cruz’s stump speech, thwarting the senator’s attempts to turn the pubescent heckler into a talking point.
“You know, one of the things that hopefully someone has told you is that children should speak with respect,” Cruz said. “Imagine what a different world it would be if someone had told Donald Trump that, years ago.”
Eventually he gave up, saying: “In my household, when a child behaves that way they get a spanking.”
Donald Trump is picking up all the Indiana sports endorsements today.
Before his event in Carmel, Indiana, longtime Purdue basketball coach Gene Keady endorsed Trump. Keady, who coached the Boilermakers for 25 years, said “I listened to his foreign policy speech the other day and he just won himself the presidency.” The college basketball coach is also famous (or perhaps infamous) for his now-late combover, which bore certain similarities to Trump’s coiffure.
The endorsement at the rally was paired with an online endorsement offered former Notre Dame football coach Lou Holtz, who said “the main reason I am endorsing him is I’ve played his golf course, I’ve stayed in his hotels. He does nothing but first class in everything. He wants this country to be first class as well.”
The two coaches, along with legendary Indiana basketball coach Bobby Knight, give Trump a trifecta of endorsements from each of Indiana’s three major universities. Trump though added to his celebrity glitter, throwing in an endorsement from former pro football player and actor Fred Williamson.
Williamson, nicknamed “the Hammer” for his hard hits as a safety for the Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs, was praised by Trump, “I love people that hit hard.” The newly minted Trump endorser, a native of Gary, Indiana, also had extensive acting career. He starred in the blaxploitation classic Black Caesar and also appearing films ranging from M.A.S.H. to From Dusk Till Dawn.
Donald Trump’s nickname for “Lyin’” Ted Cruz sometimes feels like it’s straight out of a schoolyard. Now, the Texas senator is hitting back on the billionaire Republican frontrunner with an ad that responds: “I know you are, but what am I?”
In the ad, titled Lying, a narrator tells voters that “Donald Trump is lying about Ted Cruz,” touting his opposition to trade deals and his against-it-after-he-was-for-it undermining of the Gang of Eight immigration bill while Trump donated to politicians of whom the gang was composed.
“Trump also had a $1 million judgment against him for hiring illegals,” the narrator states, referring to a 1980 lawsuit in which a contractor hired undocumented Polish workers to build his eponymous Midtown Manhattan corporate headquarters. (Sidenote: Although the lawsuit aimed for a $1 million settlement, the presiding judge ordered Trump to pay considerably less, and the case was eventually settled out of court for an undisclosed amount.)
“Trump still brings in hundreds of foreign workers to replace Americans,” the ad states, referring to a New York Times article that pointed out the high number of legal-status foreign workers at his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida.
“What a phony.”
It was bound to happen.
Brooklyn-accented Vermont senator and Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has been played by Seinfeld co-creator Larry David on Saturday Night Live for months, but for the first time, Sanders has been edited into the cast of the hit “show about nothing.”
The supercut pastes Sanders’ head onto the body of George Costanza, the neurotic best friend of the eponymous Jerry Seinfeld character, whose jeremiads about the state of inequality are met with eyerolls and skepticism by the rest of the gang.
For planning purposes:
Will be interviewed on @seanhannity tonight at 10pmE. Enjoy! #INPrimary
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 2, 2016
Donald Trump has readily signaled his willingness to inject Bill Clinton’s sexual pecadillos into the 2016 presidential campaign, telling NBC in December that the former president might be likened to a sexual predator.
“There certainly was a lot of abuse of women, you look at whether it’s Monica Lewinsky or Paula Jones, or any of them, and that certainly will be fair game,” Trump said at the time.
But comments unearthed by the Daily Beast show that at the height of the national controversy over the then-president’s affair with a White House intern, Trump was singing a different tune: the ballad of a “victim” injured by a cast of “unattractive” women.
“The whole thing, it’s just so unattractive,” Trump told Fox News host Neil Cavuto at the time. “Linda Tripp maybe one of the most unattractive human beings I’ve ever seen - not women, human beings. She’s just an unattractive person. This [Lucianne] Goldberg person, her agent or whatever she is, is just a terrible woman. You look at Paula Jones, I mean the whole cast of characters.”
“It’s like it’s from Hell,” he continued. “It’s a terrible group of people.”
Trump then went on, telling Cavuto that while he didn’t “necessarily agree with [Clinton’s] victims,” that Clinton was “really a victim himself. But he put himself in that position.”
The White House has faced tough questioning over comedian Larry Wilmore’s use of a taboo racial slur at its annual correspondents dinner.
Press secretary Josh Earnest was challenged repeatedly by April Ryan, an African American journalist and author of The Presidency in Black and White, who suggested that many people in the room were “appalled” by the N-word being uttered to the president’s face. Earnest said that Barack Obama appreciated “the spirit” of Wilmore’s remark.
Wilmore, who is African American, ended his after-dinner speech on Saturday by recognising the historical significance of America’s first black president, pounding his chest and telling Obama: “Words alone do me no justice. So, Mr President, if I’m going to keep it 100: yo, Barry, you did it, my nigga.”
The comment immediately divided people both in the room and beyond. Jonathan Capehart of the Washington Post blogged: “Never before has the n-word been used to address the president. At least, not in public and most definitely not to his face. That’s why Wilmore’s use of it was as shocking as it was disrespectful.”
At today’s daily press briefing at the White House, the issue was raised by Ryan, Washington bureau chief for American Urban Radio Networks. She described it as “a word that is one of the worst words, many people say, you could say to anyone”.
Earnest did not address this directly but noted that following Obama’s act at the annual dinner is “one of the most difficult tasks in comedy”, since the president has shown himself “adept” at delivering one-liners and so expects comedians to go “right up to the line”.
But Ryan pressed further: “Many African Americans in that room – who included civil rights leaders, black comedians – were very appalled ... Black Republicans were upset, black Democrats were upset. People felt that not just throwing it at him, he threw it at them, and also, it diminished the office of the presidency and it diminished him. Did he cross the line?”
Earnest responded: “April, what I would say is it’s not the first time that people on the Monday after the White House correspondents dinner have observed that the comedian on Saturday night crossed the line.”
Ted Cruz’s hail Mary pass in picking a former California senate candidate as his potential running mate isn’t making the splash he was likely hoping for in the Golden State.
A new poll conducted by SurveyUSA shows that in California, billionaire Republican frontrunner is currently leading the Republican field with the support of 54% of registered Republican voters, while Cruz trails with 20%. Ohio governor John Kasich is currently at the bottom of the three-man dogpile with the support of a mere 16% of California Republicans.
As for the Democrats, former secretary of state Hillary Clinton currently leads among registered Democrats with 57%, with Vermont senator Bernie Sanders nearly 20 points behind at 38%.
At an event in Indiana, billionaire Republican frontrunner Donald Trump is making a bit of a hash over Carly Fiorina falling off a stage in the Hoosier State on Sunday.
“Carly’s perfectly nice - she fell off the stage the other day and Cruz didn’t do anything. Even I would have helped her!” Trump said.
“That was a weird deal.”
Democratic presidential frontrunner Hillary Clinton spoke to coal miners in Kentucky earlier today, and Kentucky senator Rand Paul is not happy about it:
Hey @HillaryClinton I think it's just about time you apologize to everyone in Kentucky.https://t.co/iBvDx1Bto6
— Dr. Rand Paul (@RandPaul) May 2, 2016
Vermont senator and Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders is pushing the results of a recent poll out of Indiana that shows him within the margin of error of upsetting frontrunner Hillary Clinton’s lead in the race for tomorrow’s primary.
“We intend to fight for every vote and delegate remaining, starting with tomorrow night’s primary in Indiana where recent polling shows us well with the margin of error,” a email from the campaign tells supporters, citing an NBC poll that shows Sanders trailing Clinton by four percentage points in the Hoosier State.
Calling the race to win a majority of pledged delegates ahead of the convention “admittedly a tough hill to climb,” Sanders’ campaign tells supporters that “winning Indiana tomorrow night would not only cut into Secretary Clinton’s lead, but it would send a powerful message to the political establishment and corporate media who just want this race to end so they can get on with the ratings and fundraising bonanza that would be a Clinton v. Trump general election.
After asking for donations to help this upset occur, Sanders’ campaign makes an interesting argument about its ability to keep Clinton from clinching a pledged-delegate majority (although, perhaps, not a highly accurate one):
Let’s be clear. It is virtually impossible for Secretary Clinton to win all of the pledged delegates she needs to capture the nomination without the help of superdelegates at the convention. That means every vote we receive, every delegate we win between now and July strengthens our hand as we get to a contested convention.
We’ll see if this Rudy-like gumption pays off.
Updated
Trump fan to Cruz: 'Indiana don't want you'
CBS News has captured footage of the standoff between Ted Cruz and a Trump supporter in Indiana. Cruz wades right in and tries to talk him out of his position, to jeers of “Lyin’ Ted!”.
Update: here’s the footage:
Democracy in action. Watch it here. More to come.
Updated
Heidi Cruz unbothered by rumors husband is Zodiac Killer
Yahoo News’ Hunter Walker has asked Heidi Cruz to comment on comedian Larry Wilmore’s string of jokes at the White House correspondents’ dinner at her husband’s expense. Wilmore referred repeatedly to the good-times Internet habit of pretending that Ted Cruz is the Zodiac Killer, the mysterious and uncaptured serial murderer in California from the 1960s and 1970s.
“Well, I’ve been married to him for 15 years and I know pretty well who he is, so it doesn’t bother me at all. There’s a lot of garbage out there,” Heidi Cruz said.
But Cruz’s using a bleakly tinted filter to tweet a picture of himself and Indiana governor Mike Pence Monday with CNN anchor Dana Bash stoked the rumors anew:
Great speaking with @DanaBashCNN alongside Gov. @mike_pence this afternoon! #ChooseCruz: https://t.co/uyE3WEApzo pic.twitter.com/tkbSinisnR
— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) May 2, 2016
This filter is very Zodiac Killer to me https://t.co/fUn51FAGVI
— Kendall Breitman (@KendallBreitman) May 2, 2016
Updated
Here a serious play at the game of lowering expectations, from the husband of a certain top Hillary Clinton aide:
I would not be at all surprised if Bernie wins Indiana. Many dems want to give a hat tip to him so long as HRC still wins.
— Anthony Weiner (@anthonyweiner) May 2, 2016
There hasn’t been a lot of polling in the Indiana race. Averages appear to show Clinton up in the race by about 7 points. But she was supposedly ahead in Michigan, too.
New Hampshire cancels move seen as curtailing Trump support
An attempt by the New Hampshire Republican party to limit Donald Trump’s influence in a potential contested convention was halted Monday, when the state chair canceled a controversial online vote for positions on crucial committees just minutes after the voting deadline, writes Guardian politics reporter Ben Jacobs:
In an email obtained by the Guardian, party chair Jennifer Horn said that although all 23 of the state’s delegates to the Republican National Convention participated in the vote, she was canceling it “in the interest of full transparency”. Instead, she summoned a delegates-only meeting in Concord on Friday where those unable to attend could participate via conference call.
Initially, in an email sent out Saturday night, the state party’s executive director proposed a slate for the eight slots on convention committees reserved for New Hampshire delegates at the Republican gathering in Cleveland in July. The proposed slate included two supporters apiece of John Kasich, Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz and one supporter of Marco Rubio. The eighth slot was left vacant.
Trump won overwhelmingly in the Granite State’s February primary, with 35% of the vote. His nearest competitor, John Kasich, only received 15% in what was then the first primary in the country. Under New Hampshire’s relatively proportional rules, by which any candidate who gets more than 10% of the vote receives delegates, Trump was awarded 11 of the state’s 23 delegates.
Since then, the well-organized Cruz campaign has picked up stray delegates in other states that Trump won, such as Louisiana, and swept local contests inWyoming and Colorado.
Read the full piece here:
The Trump campaign has announced that the candidate will speak at Trump Tower in Manhattan tomorrow, following the closure of the last polling stations in Indiana at 6pm central / 7pm eastern.
Ted Cruz is fighting for every last vote in Indiana.
Cruz arguing with Trump supporters in Indiana: "Do the math!" "Ok, lyin' Ted!" "Where's your Goldman Sachs jacket?" pic.twitter.com/0NoI1yHlgk
— Evan McMurry (@evanmcmurry) May 2, 2016
.@tedcruz has extended back-and-forth with Donald Trump supporters who are shouting "Lyin' Ted" in his face pic.twitter.com/AqPbpWJf5c
— Ben Gittleson (@bgittleson) May 2, 2016
Nominal Ted Cruz running mate Carly Fiorina slipped off a stage at a Cruz rally Monday, according to a Hollywood Reporter dispatch. There’s no report as yet of any injury, details to come.
Carly Fiorina falls off stage at Ted Cruz's Indiana event https://t.co/Hvve1xl6x0 pic.twitter.com/yAVcOTyhb9
— Ryan Parker (@TheRyanParker) May 2, 2016
Update: nothing apparently hurt. Video shows that Fiorina was quickly back on her feet:
Updated
Clinton out-raises Sanders in April
Hillary Clinton raised more money than Bernie Sanders last month for the first time in 2016, according to end-of-month totals released by the campaigns.
Clinton reported a $26m haul for April, while Sanders reportedly took in $25.8m – significantly down from his high-water-marks in February and March, when he took in $43.5m and $44m, respectively.
Sixty-five percent of Sanders’ fundraising in the cycle this far has come from small individual contributions, according to the campaign finance web site Open Secrets, compared with 19% for Clinton. Clinton has reported receipt of $133m in large individual contributions, versus $64m for Sanders.
North Carolina voters want transgender discrimination law repealed – poll
Half of registered voters in North Carolina disapprove of a law barring transgender people access to their preferred bathrooms and nearly as many want the law repealed, according to a new survey from bipartisan polling firm Red America, Blue America.
Forty-eight percent of poll respondents said they believed the law, HB2, should be repealed, while 34% wanted the law to remain in place and 18% were not sure.
The result appeared to hinge on political independents, who disapproved of the law 52-33. Republicans in the poll largely supported the law, which was signed by Republican governor Pat McCrory in March, while Democrats opposed it.
Some North Carolinians believe the law has cost the state economically. In protest of the law, PayPal canceled plans for a facility in Charlotte, North Carolina, that would have created 500 local jobs, the Charlotte Observer reported, while “at least 20 conventions and events have dropped plans to come.”
“North Carolina did something that was very strong. And they’re paying a big price, there’s a lot of problems,” Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said last month.
McRory, who is in a re-election fight this year, has blamed the Charlotte mayor for the law, which the legislature signed in a special rush session after the city of Charlotte passed a local ordinance saying that people could use bathrooms in line with their gender identities, irrespective of what was on their birth certificates.
“It’s absolutely not personal on my end,” McRory told the Observer on Friday. “We have to correct the record of both your newspaper and national newspapers … This whole bathroom idea was the political left’s idea, not the political right.”
That was a slightly different explanation from the one he gave at the time:
Ordinance defied common sense, allowing men to use women’s bathroom/locker room for instance. That’s why I signed bipartisan bill to stop it
— Pat McCrory (@PatMcCroryNC) March 24, 2016
Pollster Brad Anderson of Red America, Blue America said the law may also be influencing the state’s attorney general race, in which the Republican candidate called on supporters at a rally to “keep our state straight.”
“It is a safe bet to say the new HB2 legislation has done the Republican party no favors in North Carolina,” Anderson said. “Independent voters oppose the law just as strongly as Republicans support it, which could be a problem for Republicans in November.”
Updated
GOP Congressman reserves stance on Trump-Clinton matchup
First billionaire bankroller Charles Koch suggested that it was possible that he and his brother, David, would support Hillary Clinton over the Republican nominee.
Now Republican representative David Jolly of Florida, who’s running for the US senate, says he does not know whom he would support in a Clinton-Trump race.
“So, I’m going tell you something you rarely hear in elected official say: I don’t know,” Jolly told AM970 The Answer, in an interview flagged by BuzzFeed’s Andrew Kaczynski. “I truly don’t know.”
Jolly said he called on Trump to drop out of the race after Trump called for a ban on Muslims.
“I also have strong disagreements with secretary Clinton,” Jolly says. “I’m a Republican, and I hope we can find a conservative leader.”
Updated
Campaign bloopers. Although anything looks like a blooper when you loop it over a tuba bassline like that and finish with an air horn.
Oh no. OH GOD NO. https://t.co/OG9TerQn8u
— Chris Cillizza (@TheFix) May 2, 2016
Updated
This is a pretty bracing anti-Trump ad from the senate race in Arkansas. It accuses Trump of harassment, with selections from the catalogue of odious things Trump has said about women, including a few less well circulated examples:
So, how is it that a long-shot Senate candidate in AR produced a more powerful anti-Trump ad than any GOP rivals? https://t.co/VsC4No7dze …
— Alec MacGillis (@AlecMacGillis) May 2, 2016
In fairness, Trump's Republican rivals only had a measly couple of hundred million dollars to work with https://t.co/mgdzvTHaT4
— David Frum (@davidfrum) May 2, 2016
Update: influential anti-Trump conservative voices think it hits the mark:
Want a preview of the general election campaign for the Senate? Just watch this new ad. Damn. https://t.co/ewViNfEcIn
— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) May 2, 2016
Damn, son. https://t.co/aa19I5HfEh
— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) May 2, 2016
Updated
Cruz says 'absolutely' path to victory without Indiana
Ted Cruz needs 672 more delegates to clear 1,237, according to the AP tally. Unfortunately, there are only 10 Republican contests left – and only 502 pledged delegates remain to be awarded. So any path Cruz has to the Republican nomination, barring some truly wild twist, involves Donald Trump failing to capture a 1,237 delegate majority, unleashing a chaos from which Cruz could emerge as the nominee.
Cruz said on Monday that he “absolutely” has a path to the nomination if he loses in Indiana, where the victor is expected to gather 40-some delegates. If Trump collects such a prize, he would need to grab about 45% of the remaining pledged delegates to cross the line, very doable for him based on past performance. (And Trump could get to 1,237 without winning Indiana.)
The path Cruz sees to the nomination after an Indiana loss, in short, remains well-hidden to everyone else, and would seem to involve a sudden and drastic shift in momentum in the race of the kind that’s difficult to imagine.
WATCH: @TedCruz tells @ABC he "absolutely" has a path to victory if he loses Indiana primary https://t.co/ei4Ay1gSZ0 https://t.co/4kM5zeBk8Z
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) May 2, 2016
Both Trump and Clinton historically unpopular
FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten notes the historic unpopularity, going back to 1988, of both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, at this stage in the nominating race.
If you look @ net very fav ratings, it becomes clear dislike for Clinton/Trump is historic & not just a time trend. pic.twitter.com/KvZHvzy5ou
— Harry Enten (@ForecasterEnten) May 2, 2016
The figures below reflect the opinions of the public at large. Both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are viewed favorably by a majority of Republican voters, according to polling.
Clinton’s favorability among Democrats hit a new low last month, but remained as high as +36 or 66-30, according to Gallup. Bernie Sanders’ net favorability among Democrats was measured highest of all, at +52.
So the historic un-favorability of the frontrunners this cycle may in part be attributable to growing political polarization, in which a smaller share of partisans on one side are open to seeing the other side’s nominee as acceptable.
Clinton is historically unpopular at this point... Trump, though, is on another planet with the general electorate. pic.twitter.com/gaQI0ShWVT
— Harry Enten (@ForecasterEnten) May 1, 2016
Updated
Racing to close the deal in Indiana, Ted Cruz has rolled out a video ad featuring his endorsement by governor Mike Spence, whom Donald Trump was actively courting late last month.
But Spence, who signed a law placing new restrictions on abortions in March, rebuffed Trump’s overtures to back Cruz, whom he praises as a “principled conservative”.
“I’m a Reagan conservative,” Spence says in the new ad. “I see Ted Cruz as a principled conservative who’s dedicated his career to advocating the Reagan agenda.”
Workers fight for dignity in Trump's Las Vegas hotel: 'You don't talk to the boss'
Maricella Olvera encounters Donald Trump on occasion, but she’s careful not to say a word. The 47-year-old cleans the penthouse at the Trump International Hotel Las Vegas, where Trump, his family, and celebrity guests often come to stay. She cleans around them in silence. Trump is always uninterested, report the Guardian’s Oliver Laughland and Mae West:
“The policy is: you don’t talk to the boss,” she said at her small one-bedroom home, on the joyously named Sing Song Way in the city’s northern suburbs.
While Olvera may be silent at work, she and a collective of cleaners, bar workers, and kitchen staff at the Trump hotel have been a thorn in the billionaire’s side for the past year, using what voice they have to remind the public of the hypocrisy that surrounds his audacious run for the presidency and his record as an employer.
Although Trump has touted himself as “the greatest jobs president that God has ever created”, these workers point to the fact they are paid on average $3 less than the thousands of unionised hotel workers in Las Vegas who work identical jobs and enjoy a host of other benefits, including pensions and free health insurance, not available to Trump employees.
Earlier this month, following a protracted dispute with Trump and his co-owner, casino billionaire Phil Ruffin, the National Labor Relations Board officially certified a union for over 500 staff at the hotel. Workers argue they have been subjected to surveillance, intimidation, and unlawful dismissal as they have sought to organize.
Read the full piece here:
Updated
Seattle police used pepper spray to disperse black-clad anti-capitalist protesters authorities say threw rocks, flares, bricks and Molotov cocktails at officers during a rowdy May Day gathering, the Associated Press reports:
At least nine people were arrested Sunday evening. Authorities said five officers were hurt, none seriously.
The clashes in Seattle followed a peaceful march in the city earlier in the day by advocates for workers and immigrants, just one of several events in cities nationwide Sunday to call for better wages for workers, an end to deportations and support for an Obama administration plan to give work permits to immigrants in the country illegally whose children are American citizens.
In Los Angeles hundreds of May Day marchers took to the streets chanting slogans and carrying signs and at least one Donald Trump piñata.
Read further here:
Hello and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. A Marist poll released at the weekend had Donald Trump ahead of Ted Cruz by 15 points, 49-34, in the Republican race in Indiana, which holds primaries tomorrow and which could significantly simplify Trump’s path to winning the Republican presidential nomination outright. (Trump’s lead in the Marist poll was about double his lead in polling averages.)
If talk of a contested convention is diminishing on the Republican side, however, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders has predicted such a twist in the Democratic race. Sanders said on Sunday that he would continue battling against Hillary Clinton, revealing plans for a new series of mega-rallies in California.
“She will need superdelegates to take her over the top at the convention in Philadelphia,” Sanders said. “In other words the convention will be a contested contest.”
The Republican fight for Indiana, meanwhile, saw Texas senator Ted Cruz make a last-ditch series of attacks on Donald Trump on Sunday. “No one is going to clinch it on the first ballot. I’m not and Donald Trump is not either,” Cruz said. “It’s why Donald Trump is so desperate to say it’s over now... It’s going to be a contested convention.”
Trump made headlines in the Hoosier state by accusing China of “the greatest theft in the history of the world” and of “raping” the United States.
In other news, president Obama tickled his audience in his final turn at the annual White House Correspondents’ Dinner on Saturday by poking fun at Trump and Clinton and concluding his remarks with a mic drop.
And it’s Harvard for Malia Obama, after a gap year:
Thanks as always for joining us, and jump right in in the comments to tell us what you think will happen in Indiana.
