Trump administration officials have been trying to build a case that one reason Venezuelan military support for President Nicolas Maduro hasn't crumbled is the influence of Cuban military advisers in Venezuela.
But Cuba got scant attention in the U.S. intelligence community's 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment and there was no mention of the threat of a Cuba-Venezuela nexus.
In the assessment released on Capitol Hill this past week, the only observations on Cuba were:
�� "Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel will adhere to former President Raul Castro's blueprint for institutionalizing one-party rule and socialism in Cuba through constitutional reforms. Diaz-Canel has acknowledged that Raul Castro, who still commands the ruling Communist Party, remains the dominant voice on public policy." (Cuba plans a nationwide referendum Feb. 24 on a new constitution.)
�� "We assess that Iran and Cuba's intelligence services will continue to target the United States, which they see as a primary threat."
The annual threat report is prepared by the 16 agencies and administrative office that make up the U.S. intelligence community. Intelligence officials, including Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats, testified on the report before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Tuesday. It was prepared with information available as of Jan. 17.
In the section on the Western Hemisphere, the report said: "Flagging economies, migration flows, corruption, narcotics trafficking, and anti-U.S. autocrats will present continuing challenges to U.S. interests, as U.S. adversaries and strategic competitors seek greater influence in the region.
"China and Russia will pursue efforts to gain economic and security influence in the region," the report said.
The threat assessment for Venezuela made this observation: "Although the regime of Nicolas Maduro will continue to try to maintain power, he is facing persistent opposition. Falling oil production, economic mismanagement and legal challenges almost certainly will compound the worsening economic pressure on the country."
The section on Cuba in the report contrasts with recent remarks by Trump administration officials.
Administration sources have said they are considering putting Cuba back on the list of countries that sponsor terrorism if Havana continues to support Maduro. Cuba was removed from the list of state sponsors of terrorism in 2015 as part of the Obama administration's opening toward Cuba.
But U.S.-Cuba relations have become strained during the Trump administration and in recent weeks U.S. officials have been highly critical of Cuba's role in Venezuela.
"No regime has done more to sustain the nightmarish condition of the Venezuelan people than the regime in Havana," U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said at a meeting of the United Nations Security Council Jan. 26. "Cuban security and intelligence thugs, invited into Venezuela by Maduro himself and those around him, have sustained this illegitimate rule. ... Cuba has directly made matters worse."
Cuba has remained steadfast in its support of Maduro and been highly critical of the United States. "The Secretary of State slanders #Cuba to justify coup against constitutional power in #Venezuela. Washington designed, financed and arranged the alleged usurpation of the Venezuelan presidency," Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez said in a Twitter post after the United States recognized Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido as Venezuela's interim president.
Guaido, who has been backed as interim president by about two dozen other countries, also has complained of Cuban meddling: "It's time for Cuba to get out of the armed forces. It's time for the Cubans to leave decision-making jobs. Cuban brothers: You are welcome to stay in this country. But only outside the armed forces and decision-making jobs."
