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The Independent UK
The Independent UK
Politics
Joe Sommerlad

Trump-Russia nuclear treaty: Alarm over president's 'dangerous' decision to withdrawal from Cold War-era agreement

Mike Pompeo has announced the US is suspending its participation from a crucial Cold War nuclear treaty with Russia - triggering fears of a new Cold War-style arms race.

Analysts have expressed fears that an American exit from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces agreement, which banned ground-launched cruise-control missiles when it was signed in 1987, could spark tensions between the old rival superpowers and China, now Asia’s dominant military presence.

The president has meanwhile attacked the FBI's arrest of political fixer Roger Stone and dismissed his recent shutdown talks with Democrats as a “waste of time” in a wide-ranging interview with The New York Times.

Hello and welcome to The Independent's coverage of another busy day in Washington.
The Trump administration is poised to announce today that it is withdrawing from a treaty that has been a centerpiece of superpower arms control since the Cold War and whose demise some analysts worry could fuel a new arms race. 
 
An American withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF), which has been expected for months, would follow years of unresolved dispute over Russian compliance with the pact.
 
It was the first arms control measure to ban an entire class of weapons: ground-launched cruise missiles with a range between 500 kilometres (310 miles) and 5,500 kilometres (3,400 miles). Russia denies that it has been in violation of the terms of the agreement.
 
US officials also have expressed concerns that China, which is not party to the 1987 treaty, is gaining a significant military advantage in Asia by deploying large numbers of missiles with ranges beyond the treaty's limit. Leaving the INF treaty would allow the Trump administration to counter the Chinese, but it's unclear how it would do that. 
 
US secretary of state Mike Pompeo said in early December that Washington would give Moscow 60 days to return to compliance before it gave formal notice of withdrawal, with actual withdrawal taking place six months later. The 60-day deadline expires on Saturday, and the administration is expected to say as early as Friday that efforts to work out a compliance deal have failed and that it would suspend its compliance with the treaty's terms.
 
The State Department said Mr Pompeo would make a public statement on Friday morning, but it did not mention the topic. 
 
A US withdrawal would take effect six months after this week's announcement, leaving a small window for saving the treaty.
 
However, in talks this week in Beijing, the US and Russia reported no breakthrough in their dispute, leaving little reason to think either side would change its stance on whether a Russian cruise missile violates the pact. 
 
A Russian deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, was quoted by the Russian state news agency Tass as saying after the Beijing talks on Thursday, "Unfortunately, there is no progress. The position of the American side is very tough and like an ultimatum." He said he expects Washington now to suspend its obligations under the treaty, although he added that Moscow remains ready to "search for solutions" that could keep the treaty in force. 
 
The move raises the prospect of further deterioration in US-Russian relations, which already are arguably at the lowest point in decades and debate among US allies in Europe over whether Russia's alleged violations warrant a countermeasure such as deployment of an equivalent American missile in Europe. The US has no nuclear-capable missiles based in Europe - the last of that type and range were withdrawn in line with the INF treaty. 
Meanwhile, House speaker Nancy Pelosi has declared that there'll be no "wall money" in any compromise border security deal.
 
Mr Trump, who in recent weeks has expressed indifference to whether the term "wall" or something else is used, clung with renewed tenacity to the word that became his campaign mantra, declaring, "A wall is a wall."
 
But in a series of tweets and statements, he issued conflicting messages about what he'd need to declare victory and suggested that merely repairing existing structures along the boundary could still be an option.
 
Amid signs that President Trump's influence in Congress is waning, he seemed to aim one tweet at his conservative followers. He wrote that Democrats "are not going to give money to build the DESPERATELY needed WALL. I've got you covered. Wall is already being built, I don't expect much help!"
The president backing down on the recent shutdown, the longest in US history, saw the government reopened until 15  February, giving lawmakers more time to craft a bipartisan border security compromise.
 
If there's no deal by then, President Trump has threatened to revive the shutdown or declare a national emergency, which he claims would let him shift billions from unrelated military construction projects to erecting his wall.
 
He criticised Democrats' negotiating stance so far, telling reporters in the Oval Office that Pelosi is "just playing games" and saying GOP bargainers are "wasting their time." 
Here's Peter Stubley on the treaty withdrawal.
 

Trump set to pull out of nuclear treaty with Russia within hours

Withdrawal described by Mikhail Gorbachev as 'not the work of a great mind'
And here's the mighty Chris Baynes on that interview with the "failing" New York Times from the Oval Office, in which the president brands his talks with the Democrats over federal funding for his proposed Mexico border wall "a waste of time".
 
He was dismissive of Robert Mueller's investigation into alleged Russian election tampering, saying he was "not a target" and rubbished rumours he would not run for re-election in 2020.
 

Trump signals he will declare national emergency after ‘waste of time’ border wall talks

President says he has 'set the stage' to sidestep congress and claims he has been assured he is 'not the target' of special counsel's Russia probe
One more. Here's Sarah Harvard on his deteriorating relationship with Nancy Pelosi, who has emerged as Mr Trump's strongest rival since securing the speakership of the House of Representatives in early January.
 

Rift between Trump and Pelosi widens amid prospect of 'national emergency'

'There’s not going to be any wall money in the legislation' said Nancy Pelosi
The president was busy on Twitter yesterday, continuing his tactic of painting America's southern neighbour as a lawless wasteland to justify the need for a wall.
 
He also praised US Border Patrol for securing a record-breaking drug bust, right when he needed the publicity coup most.
 
 
Mike Pompeo has now announced that the US will suspend participation in the nuclear arms treaty.
On the nuclear treaty, Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference in Bucharest there are no signs of getting a compliance deal with Russia.

"So we must prepare for a world without the INF treaty," he said.
The move starts a 180-day clock to complete withdrawal unless Russia returns to compliance with the 1987 agreement.
    The president will finally give his much-delayed State of the Union address to Congress on 5 February.
     
    Doing so, he'll find himself surrounded by women. Here's Adam Forrest on a timely "feminist statement".
     

    Women to surround Trump and make 'feminist statement' during State of the Union address

    Female immigrants who used to work at president's golf course will be among guests
    The American withdrawal had been expected for months. It follows years of unresolved dispute over Russian compliance with the pact, which bans certain ground-launched cruise missiles. Russia denies violating the treaty. 

    Pompeo says the US will suspend its obligations to the treaty on Saturday. Pompeo says that if Russia doesn't come into compliance, the treaty "will terminate."

    US officials also have expressed concern that China, which isn't part of the treaty, is deploying large numbers of missiles in Asia that the US can't counter because it's bound by the treaty.
    NATO issues statement saying America's allies "fully support" the decision.
    The treaty was the first arms control measure to ban an entire class of weapons: ground-launched cruise missiles with a range between 310 miles and 3,100 miles. Russia denies that it has been in violation.
    Donald Trump said Russia has violated the treaty "with impunity, covertly developing and fielding a prohibited missile system that poses a direct threat to our allies and troops abroad."
    He added that the US "will not remain constrained by its terms while Russia misrepresents its actions. We cannot be the only country in the world unilaterally bound by this treaty, or any other."

    The move has sparked criticism in some quarters, however, with former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev – who signed the treaty with US president Ronald Reagan – describing it as “not the work of a great mind".

    James Nixey, head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at think tank Chatham House, said: "The fact that both sides are claiming the other has violated the treaty does not mean equivalence. Although there is always a question of interpretation, it is clear that Russia has been the principal party in breach. Both moves (or rather lack of them) made so far - allowing treaty violations to go unresponded to, and walking out on the treating altogether - are equally dangerous options and should not be permitted. Proven failure to comply should have penalties that impose a cost. In this case that should mean fresh sanctions on Russia."
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