California Republicans are motivated, and the nation is taking notice.
After years of declining membership, and repeated failures to win state office, Golden State conservatives feel they have a real shot at kicking California's top Democrat out of office.
Big-name GOP players like Mike Huckabee, party chairwoman Ronna McDaniel and the Republican Governors Association are taking notice and contributing money. Prominent donors to former President Donald Trump, like real estate mogul Geoff Palmer, have endorsed the recall. National media attention also ramped up in recent weeks, thanks in part to Caitlyn Jenner's entrance into the race.
But when it comes to one of this year's biggest political stories, Trump is nowhere to be found.
It could be too early, some say, and he may not be interested in jumping in yet. But his absence seems odd to those who have seen Trump berate Golden State Democrats for years.
"It's kind of out of character for him not to shoot his mouth off," said Democratic consultant Garry South. "If he was still on Twitter it's pretty hard for me to believe that he wouldn't have weighed in on this, particularly since it's going to qualify."
Whether or not he weighs in, Democrats want to make the recall about Trump. Newsom's camp is painting the effort as a fringe movement led by the former president's most radical supporters.
At this point, the recall appears unlikely to succeed. Researchers at the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies reported earlier this week that 49% of voters would choose to retain Newsom, compared to 36% who said they would recall him.
That may be why Trump is holding back, although other Republican consultants say it's just a matter of time until he jumps in the campaign.
"What Donald Trump really wants is relevance and infrastructure," said Republican consultant Mike Madrid, who helped co-found the anti-Trump Lincoln Project. "And getting involved in California gives him both."
Rob Stutzman, a GOP consultant who worked as former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's communications director, said Newsom is likely to win in a recall, and Trump doesn't want to be associated with losing.
The former president thus far has only put his stamp on candidates who have a strong chance of winning in the upcoming election cycle.
Besides, Trump's endorsement could have unintended effects for the recall, Stutzman said.
"The prospects of the recall succeeding at the moment aren't great. It's not as if (Trump) can grow the existing recall vote in California much beyond the base," he said. "If (Trump weighs in) it gives Newsom the ability to basically campaign against him, which would be a godsend to the governor."
Will Trump back a recall candidate?
Since losing the November election, Trump has endorsed a handful of political candidates, including former Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who narrowly lost to Democrat Raphael Warnock in the January runoff.
He's also offered support to Republicans in 2022 races in Arkansas, South Carolina, Alabama, Wisconsin, Kansas, Florida, and Kentucky — all states with strong Republican footholds.
A California recall election is not as straightforward as a Congressional race. Newsom is not directly competing with other candidates. Rather, voters will decide whether or not to keep Newsom, and then choose from a field of replacement candidates.
Republican candidates are eager to position themselves as the leader of Californians frustrated by coronavirus lockdowns and Democratic policies. Trump has praised states like Florida for being less restrictive in its COVID-19 reaction, and mocked California's mask mandate on the 2020 campaign trail.
Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, 2018 Republican candidate John Cox, former GOP Rep. Doug Ose, and reality TV star Jenner are all jockeying to be the star player in the recall.
A Trump endorsement could help them stand out, although it also carries risks. Trump lost to President Joe Biden by more than 5 million votes in California.
Cox picked up Trump's endorsement when he ran for governor against Newsom in 2018. At a recent campaign rally, Cox said he hasn't been in touch with Trump.
Faulconer was a latecomer to the Trump party. After distancing himself from the president in 2016, he told the Los Angeles Times that he voted for Trump in 2020. Faulconer also recently reported a $32,000 donation from Trump mega-donor Palmer.
Then there's Jenner, a candidate with high name-ID who has elevated the recall conversation in the national news. Her campaign is being run by former Trump social media guru Brad Parscale.
Despite the flurry of media attention, Jenner hasn't produced a strong backing. Only 6% of voters said they're inclined to support her, according to the latest survey from the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, ranking lowest among Faulconer (22%), Cox (22%) and Ose (14%).
Earlier this year, former Trump cabinet member Ric Grenell was rumored to be considering a run for governor. He even hinted at it during remarks at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Florida. He hasn't officially declared a run yet, but given his tight ties with Trump, he could be a prime candidate for endorsement.
Could Trump hurt the recall?
Newsom's camp wants voters to believe the recall is led by radical Trump supporters. An endorsement from Donald Trump would almost certainly give credence to their argument.
Lead recall organizer Orrin Heatlie said whether the former president weighs in is "inconsequential" to him.
Heatlie and other leaders have long contended the recall is supported by people across the political spectrum, even though the evidence from non-partisan pollsters shows much more support for the recall among Republicans than Democrats.
"It's immaterial if he endorses the recall itself, because it's not a federal matter," Heatlie said. "If he doesn't own property in California or reside here, he doesn't have a dog in the race."
Trump could give a candidate a boost with an endorsement, Heatlie said, but the recall leader doesn't believe an endorsement would hurt, given the former president won 6 million votes, about 34%, in California last year.
South, who ran campaigns for Democratic Gov. Gray Davis, said Newsom is using the same kind of messaging they tried in 2003, when Democrats tried to paint the Davis recall as a Republican sideshow backed by President George W. Bush.
National Republicans, for the most part, stayed out of the Davis recall. Bush never commented on it publicly for fear of meddling in the outcome, which made it harder for Democrats to convince Californians that the Davis recall was led by Bush backers.
In Newsom's case, it doesn't matter if Trump stays silent. Convincing voters that the recall is about Trump is the easiest messaging Democrats can do when it comes to a political process that few are familiar with, said Democratic consultant Andrew Acosta.
"Regardless of if the former president weighs in or not ... they're going to make it about him," he said. "It puts it in an easy-to-explain context for those following at home."
