
In an unprecedented and ongoing battle against former President Donald Trump, over 30 states are attempting to keep him off the ballot for future elections. At the forefront sits Massachusetts, with a strong intent to prevent a potential Trump reelection bid.
The main tool these states are reaching for is the 14th Amendment, Section 3, ratified in 1868 after the Civil War. Its original application was designed to penalize Confederate leaders, being used against two known Confederate state officials. In modern times, the use of this amendment targets Trump, a controversial strategy that many legal experts predict will fail.
The 14th amendment Section 3 has been critiqued by attorney Josh Blackman, who argues that its potentially misguided application might result in what he brands 'the single biggest disenfranchisement in modern history'. The amendment stipulates penalties for anyone involved in 'insurrection or rebellion', yet Trump was never officially charged with such actions.
Trump's potential removal from the election ballot could have significant effects, not only for him but for other Republicans running for Senate, Congress, and the House. The ramifications could potentially affect 'down draft' results, reaffirming that the unfolding events are indeed consequential.
The current legal battles are not confined to traditionally Democratic states. They span from safe Republican territories, like Texas, Montana, Kansas, South Carolina, to swing states, such as Arizona and Wisconsin. The uncertainty poses that, should sympathetic judges side with the legal argument to omit Trump, the democratic landscape could radically shift.
However, recent state polls indicate a renewed momentum for Trump over current President Joe Biden. In battleground states, Trump is polling with modest but persistent leads - up by four in Arizona and Michigan, six in Georgia, and a notable nine-point lead in North Carolina. These findings are not merely representative of one poll, but are mirrored by independent studies by major media outlets such as the New York Times and Bloomberg.
These ongoing legal battles, coupled with Trump's increasing popularity in many swing states, showcase a nation deeply divided over its political future. The impact of the ensuing decisions regarding Trump's potential disqualification from future ballots could significantly dictate the direction of US politics.