Whispers of government manipulation are swirling after a quiet change in how inflation is measured.
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Since May, just weeks after President Donald Trump reimposed sweeping tariffs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has leaned more heavily on estimates—known as "imputations"—in compiling the Consumer Price Index.
Some accuse the administration of obscuring inflation data to conceal the impact of tariffs.
Yet, a closer look at the BLS explanation reveals routine statistical adjustments and, so far, no apparent political interference.
What Really Changed In The CPI—And Why
In CPI data, “home cell” imputation fills in unavailable price data using observations from the same product category and geographic area, making it one of the most accurate methods, the BLS told Benzinga.
For example, if the price of wheat bread is unavailable in Washington, D.C., the BLS might estimate it based on the average change in bread prices in the same city.
If no local data is available, the BLS switches to “different cell” imputation, using price trends from other regions for the same item.
In this case, the price of wheat bread is estimated from the broader Northeast region.
According to BLS data, the share of prices imputed from different cells in the CPI's commodities and services survey jumped from 15% in March to 35% in June.
That means more prices are being estimated based on broader regional data, rather than from the exact location and product.
At the same time, more home cell imputations—which use local data—declined. In other words, nearly one-third of the prices used to calculate the CPI are now estimates. These estimates are derived from comparable data elsewhere in the index.
This shift is primarily the result of operational cutbacks, driven by staffing reductions mandated by the Department of Government Efficiency.
Starting in April, BLS suspended CPI data collection in certain cities: Lincoln, Nebraska; Provo, Utah; and later Buffalo, New York.
Roughly 15% of the sample in the remaining 72 areas was also paused due to limited resources. That reduced the number of physical price checks across the U.S.
Is Inflation Data Now Flawed?
Critics argue that recent methodological changes at the BLS are eroding the reliability of official inflation figures.
"They're just estimating what they think inflation is," said Spencer Hakimian, founder of Tolou Capital Management, in a post on X last week, casting doubt on the data's accuracy.
"How much more obvious can they make it for you guys?" he added.
Similarly, Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, echoed this concern in a late-July note, warning that the quality of inflation data is steadily deteriorating.
Is This A Political Move?
It's fair to be skeptical about data accuracy, considering policy changes—like Trump's tariffs—raise inflation fears.
But the CPI collection changes are more about logistics than politics. And there's no statistical evidence that the increase in imputations has altered the CPI in a meaningful way.
In response to Benzinga’s inquiry, the BLS pointed to a notice detailing a simulation it conducted to assess how budget-driven data cuts could impact inflation estimates.
The results? From 2019 to 2025, simulated CPI results differed from actual official data by less than 0.01 percentage points on average, according to the BLS.
In more than two-thirds of those months, the estimate exactly matched the published CPI, the agency added.
Thus, while transparency in economic data is always essential, the speculation that the government is likely manipulating inflation to mask a potential impact from tariffs doesn't hold up under scrutiny.
What’s Next
The next CPI report will be released on Aug. 12. In June, the average year-over-year increase of consumer prices was 2.7%, the highest since February.
Separately, Trump is alleging, without evidence, that the weak July jobs report was manipulated and fired BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer as a result. However, his own former BLS chief, William Beach, says such tampering would be virtually impossible due to strict processes and oversight.
Still, Trump’s accusations could erode trust in future BLS reports among businesses and investors.
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