DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. _ The winner of the White House could hinge on Donald Trump's movement versus Hillary Clinton's machine.
Trump is banking that his followers, intensely disaffected with politics and frustrated with the economy, don't need to be nudged to the polls.
Clinton has a political organization more potent than any but President Barack Obama. She's expected to use her overwhelming advantage in paid staff and volunteers to turn out voters, particularly among demographic groups that heavily favor her over Trump.
That includes the intense fight taking place for Florida, the country's largest political battleground, and other key swing states.
"That could be important and it may matter in the margins," said Michael McDonald, a political scientist for the University of Florida and director of the United States Elections Project. "If it's close, the better ground game may make the difference."
While McDonald gives Clinton the clear advantage on the ground, particularly since Trump's campaign has only a shell of a voter turnout operation, he says Trump is still formidable.
"It's amazing to see how close he is despite not having much of a campaign organization," McDonald said.
Most of his voter engagement efforts are being handled by the Republican National Committee. That's unusual for a presidential campaign, but the party has been trying to build a turnout organization for years, having learned a hard lesson when former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney lost to Obama in 2012.
Even though the RNC's effort is more organized than in the past, the focus is on the entire GOP ballot. Complicating matters is infighting between Trump and other Republicans, which could hinder his grassroots efforts in states where the establishment is part of the apparatus.
There's also the question of how many Republicans who are ambivalent about Trump or even outright opposed to him, will be motivated to vote. Without a campaign to contact and encourage them, they may stay home, experts say.
In contrast, Clinton has a robust ground game, with thousands of paid staff and volunteers, giving her team the ability to "knock and drag" voters to the polls. She also has the help of the Democratic National Committee and outside liberal groups.
In early voting, analysts say, Democrats are outperforming Republicans in eight out of 12 battleground states. But Trump is showing strength in the Midwest, including in Iowa and Ohio, McDonald said.
The early votes have not been counted and the projections are largely based on historical data about the areas where the votes are being cast. There are also a flood of rare, new and young voters so far, consultants say.
In Florida, more than 2.9 million people had already voted as of Friday, more than 60 percent of the 4.8 million Sunshine State residents who voted early in 2012.
But "it will still come down to Election Day in most states," McDonald said.
