CHARLOTTE, N.C. _ Not only do Donald Trump and Joe Biden remain virtually tied in North Carolina heading into the final weeks of the campaign but for the first time they're matched in total TV spending.
Biden, who raised a record $364 million in August, has boosted his TV spending in the state to nearly $30 million through the election, according to Advertising Analytics. In mid-August it was just $8 million.
Political action committees allied with him are adding an additional $2.5 million.
Trump is spending $21 million on TV in the state while PACs pump in $15 million on his behalf. Both campaigns are spending more on TV in North Carolina than in any state but Florida.
The spending reflects the stakes for both campaigns in a battleground whose 15 electoral votes could be crucial in November. Polls suggest the race is essentially where it was before the conventions. Biden leads by less than a percentage point, according to Real Clear Politics' polling average.
"The thing that's remarkable about it is how little movement we've seen," said Peter Francia, director of the Center for Survey Research at East Carolina University. "The race in North Carolina has been within a few points for months now and that suggests that people have really formed hard opinions about both candidates. Campaign efforts to persuade voters are going to be very difficult."
An ECU poll showed Trump with a 2-point lead in North Carolina at the end of August, within the margin of error. A Fox News Poll released Wednesday had Biden up 4 points. Amy Walter, national editor of the Cook Political Report, has called the state "one of the few true tossups."
Trump and Vice President Mike Pence have each visited the state twice in the past two weeks. Both appeared at the Republican convention in Charlotte. Trump visited Wilmington Wednesday; Pence was in Wake County on Thursday.
"We're going to win North Carolina," Trump said in Wilmington. "I love North Carolina."
Biden's wife, Jill, held a virtual roundtable on education Wednesday with Guilford County teachers. Surrogates such as former presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg have done local TV interviews. So has Biden, who hasn't been in North Carolina for months. Kamala Harris did interviews with two N.C. TV stations.
"I plan on being down there in the not too distant future," he told the Triangle's ABC 11 this week. "I'll be there. I promise you, I'm coming."
In addition to Biden and Trump, Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and the Green Party's Howie Hawkins are on the ballot.
Activists in both parties appear to be fired up.
"We have been getting calls off the walls for Biden signs here at headquarters," said Betsy Fox, Democratic chair in Guilford County, which Democrat Hillary Clinton carried by 20 points in 2016. "They're ... not taking anything for granted."
Dan Barry, former GOP chairman in Union County, which Trump won by more than 30 points, said the president has even begun to expand his appeal in the county.
"Moderates and independents are growing more and more frustrated with our schools being closed for in-person learning and with the violence in our inner city," Barry said.
A Politico/Morning Consult poll this week found that while support for Black Lives Matter has dropped by 9 points since June, voters trusted Biden to handle public safety issues 47% to 39%. Other polls have shown Biden leading among suburban voters in the state.
Anne-Marie Yates, GOP chair in Watauga County, said the civil unrest that has fueled the president's law and order stand is less of an issue there. She said Trump supporters around Boone like his record.
"Their life has been enhanced by his policies," she said. "Economically, jobs are readily available."
Watauga, where the 6.6% unemployment rate is lower than the state's, is a bellwether N.C. county. In 2016 it went for Hillary Clinton by just 441 votes.
Democratic Chair Diane Tilson calls Biden voters "the most energized I've seen in a long time."
"Simply because of the condition of our country and ... a huge pandemic," she said.
Will Knecht was among the Republicans greeting Trump in Wilmington this week.
"The energy in New Hanover County for the president is off the charts," said Knecht, the county's Republican chairman. "We look at it as prosperity versus socialism. Rule of law or mob rule?"
He said the visit not only pumped up supporters but drew new ones. Knecht said 400 people in the county volunteered to work the election since Trump's visit was announced last weekend. Trump carried the county by 4 points in 2016.
Democratic Chair Richard Poole said that's why Biden also should come to New Hanover County.
"He's got to run a more active campaign, he's got to play offense," Poole said. "He's got to press the case that the last four years have not been good for us and we have to do better. I think it's critical to be in North Carolina. We're in a swing state. The road to the White House runs through North Carolina, and runs specifically through New Hanover County."
He said voters should ask themselves if they're better off today than four years ago.
"The answer," Poole said, "is hell no."
