President Trump is increasing pressure on Cuba's government, elevating concerns that his continued threats to invade the Caribbean island could become reality.
Why it matters: A U.S. invasion of Cuba would mark the most dramatic confrontation between Washington and Havana since the 1962 missile crisis — and the boldest test yet of Trump's campaign to expand America's influence in the Western Hemisphere under his version of the Monroe Doctrine.
State of play: U.S. surveillance and reconnaissance flights have surged off of Cuba's coast since February, according to a CNN review of flight data published this week.
- The U.S. imposed additional sanctions on Havana last Thursday, prompting the country's foreign minister to describe the measures as a "collective punishment of a genocidal nature."
- The island is also facing a worsening humanitarian crisis that Cuban officials have blamed on the U.S.' "energy blockade," which prevents oil suppliers from serving the island.
- And the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro further deteriorated local conditions by cutting Cuba off from a key oil supplier.
Between the lines: There are no definitive signs that Trump will target Cuba next.
- Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva told reporters last Thursday that Trump told him privately that he has no intention of invading Cuba during a closed door meeting at the White House.
Yes, but: Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in a military operation in Cuba, suggesting Friday that an aircraft carrier returning to the U.S. from Iran could be stationed offshore.
- He said the carrier could "come in, stop about 100 yards offshore, and they'll say: 'Thank you very much. We give up.'"
Zoom in: Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, told reporters Tuesday that the country's economic system doesn't work and can't be fixed.
- "And the reason that they can't fix it is not just because they're communist. That's bad enough," he said of the country's unelected ruling party.
- "But they're incompetent communists. The only thing worse than a communist is an incompetent one."
A White House official told Axios Monday that "Cuba is a failing nation that has been horribly run for many years and whose rulers have had a major setback with the loss of support from Venezuela."
- They added: "As the President stated, Cuba is a failing country. Within a short period of time they will fall, 'and we will be there to help them out.'"
Zoom out: Sebastian Arcos, Interim Director for the Institute for Cuban Studies at Florida International University, tells Axios that he believes intervention was possible shortly after Trump declared Cuba an imminent threat to U.S. security in January, but then the Iran War shifted military assets to the Middle East.
- "Everything was put on the back burner. Now that we see that the Iran war is sort of in limbo … I can see a sort of a refocusing on Cuba, not just in the [surveillance] flights, but also the statements from the President to Marco Rubio, and the sanctions that were just announced."
- Arcos added that he doesn't believe Trump will put boots on the ground, but that he might pursue an "off distance military action" similar to what happened in Iran that will "shock the regime, crack the leadership and perhaps create an opportunity for new leadership to rise."
What we're watching: Arcos noted that Cuban Independence Day is May 20, which marked the end of U.S occupation of the island.
- He said something could happen then, adding that "there's definitely a sense of expectation and anxiety in Miami and Cuba."
Go deeper: Rubio announces new Cuba sanctions
