DORAL, Fla. — President Trump's top advisers are urging House Republicans to turn the 2026 midterms into a choice election — and hammer Democrats on taxes, crime and border security.
Why it matters: Midterm elections are almost always referendums on the president and the party in power.
- But Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Trump are looking to buck history and retain the House by focusing on the Democrats' national brand, with 52% of voters viewing the Democratic Party unfavorably.
Driving the news: At the House GOP retreat in sunny Doral, Florida, (high 84°) White House deputy chief of staff James Blair told lawmakers to stop emphasizing "mass deportations," Axios scooped earlier Tuesday.
- Mass deportations were central to the GOP's 2024 campaign message, so Blair's advice captured attention. Instead, he told lawmakers, focus on deporting violent offenders.
- The emerging strategy: remind voters of Democrats' Biden-era positions on crime, cashless bail and open borders, according to people familiar with the matter.
Zoom in: Blair was on a closed-door panel with Chris LaCivita, Trump's 2024 co-campaign manager, and Chris Winkelman, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, an outside super PAC associated with Johnson.
- The panelists, led by National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Richard Hudson, reminded lawmakers of the GOP's unprecedented cash advantage.
- In a cycle with a small map, the party with stronger organization and clearer lines of control has the edge, the panelists said.
- Blair also told GOP lawmakers to remember how Trump won in 2024. He challenged conventional wisdom: Don't feed into Democratic talking points, he said.
Zoom out: History is not on the GOP's side this November.
- Republicans lost 41 House seats in Trump's first midterm. President Obama's Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010, the first midterm after he was elected.
- Lawmakers in both parties are fleeing Congress at a record rate, with 34 Republicans and 21 Democrats planning to leave the House at the end of this Congress.
- Trump is also a drag on Republicans as his favorability rating remains well underwater, with his approval rating in the low 40s.
Historically, the party with more departures tends to lose seats, and often the majority.
- But with a smaller map — around two dozen seats in toss-up districts — Democrats would need to outperform Vice President Harris by 3% to win the majority.
