Join us on our election night blog
Hello all – Tom McCarthy here – we’re going to pull the plug now on this blog. I wanted to invite you to the election night blog we’ve just launched here.
So far we have Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi breaking down that new WSJ/NBC poll showing Trump up on Cruz by just three points nationally; a look at the stakes in Michigan; and interviews with Mississippi voters.
Thanks for pitching in here – now join us over there!
Michigan voter profile
Name: Ali Ahmed
Age: 48
Voted for: Bernie Sanders
Occupation: Ford motor worker
Ahmed said he believed a president Sanders would restore manufacturing jobs to Michigan, once the heart of the auto industry.
But there’s another reason Ahmed was supporting Sanders, and the Democrats, he said: “He’s not racist.”
Ahmed said he believed Donald Trump had lowered the bar so much that not being racist was now a reason to vote for a candidate in this election.
In 2008, Ahmed volunteered with the Barack Obama campaign, and he said he rallied his Arab neighbors to get out the vote. This time, Trump was doing the work for him, he said.
“My mom registered to vote the other day. She’ll vote this election for the first time,” he said. “See, it’s that important.”
Michigan voter profile
Name: Dan Sweeney
Age: 73
Voted for: Hillary Clinton
Lives in: Dearborn, Michigan
Sweeney, who is retired, said he voted for Clinton “because of her experience as a senator and secretary of state”
He said he had watched all the debates and thought highly of Bernie Sanders and former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley as well.
Updated
Michigan voter profile
Name: Octavia Burton
Age: 65
Voted for: Hillary Clinton
Lives in: “This hellhole right here,” she said, waving to a rundown housing complex in Hamtramck.
Octavia Burton said it was “really tough” to decide between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. They both have great qualities, she said, but ultimately she settled on Clinton.
“She seems to be for the poor and for improving education,” Burton said of Clinton, though she’s less concerned about who wins the Democratic nomination than she is about the Republican side of the race.
“Donald Trump is too wild. He doesn’t speak well enough to run for anything ... If he gets into office it’ll be a war soon.”
Burton asked not to be photographed.
Updated
Michigan voter profile
Name: Louise Jenkins
Age: 70
Voted for: “Hilltron.” Clinton? “Yes, Whatever her name is.”
Lives in: Hamtramck, Michigan
Jenkins said she believes Clinton is “for the people” and would “make a good president”. She has nothing against Clinton’s opponent Bernie Sanders, but she believes Clinton exudes a presidential authority whereas Sanders does not.
“She got my vote,” Jenkins said, pounding the fists of two other voters walking into the station.
Jenkins agreed to be photographed but would not pause long enough to look at the camera.
The National Republican senatorial committee moved quickly to delete this tweet. But not quickly enough to hide it:
Tammy Duckworth lost both her legs while serving in the Iraq War. https://t.co/RO0RtPIAP9 pic.twitter.com/lBzSgruQHJ
— Scott Bixby (@scottbix) March 8, 2016
A conservative entrepreneur pledged to bankroll Republican candidates who support clean energy on Tuesday in an attempt to break down the party’s wall of climate denial.
Jay Faison, a North Carolina businessman, said he was making a significant intervention in the 2016 elections through his ClearPath foundation, in the hopes of promoting what he called a conservative clean energy agenda.
The effort, which involves raising $5m for a Super Pac, a $1m digital ad campaign, and the hiring of a number of key staffers for a Washington DC office, represents a renewed effort by Faison to get his party to change its position on energy and climate change.
Better Business Bureau: We gave Trump University a D-minus rating
The Better Business Bureau (BBB) has confirmed that it received “multiple customer complaints” about Trump University, the for-profit organization owned by Republican frontrunner Donald Trump whose legal woes have become a campaign issue.
In a statement released this afternoon, the Council of Better Business Bureaus and the New York chapter of the BBB refuted the billionaire’s claims that Trump University received an “excellent” rating from 98% of its customers.
“During the period when Trump University appeared to be active in the marketplace, BBB received multiple customer complaints about this business. These complaints affected the Trump University BBB rating, which was as low as D- in 2010.”
Trump University functionally closed its doors in that year.
“As the company appeared to be winding down, after 2013, no new complaints were reported,” the BBB continued, noting that as complaints over three years old “automatically rolled off,” Trump University’s rating rose even though it was no longer in operation. “As a result, over time, Trump University’s BBB rating went to an A in July 2014, and then to an A+ in January 2015,” BBB said, adding that Trump University has had “no rating” since September 2015.
Trump has continued to defend the business, telling Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly in a Republican presidential debate last week that Trump University had been given an A-rating.
I thought it’d be fun to check out the voting precincts in Detroit with very few registered voters. None of the poll workers would talk, but at Precinct #109, there are seven total registered voters, up from two in 2014. (Ed.: That’s an increase of 250%!)
At precinct #148, there are four total registered voters. The workers there wouldn’t talk but one did say, when asked if they’ve voted: “They haven’t come yet.”
Texas senator Ted Cruz has announced new members of his campaign’s national finance team - with one particularly interesting set of additions.
Citing “surging momentum,” Cruz’s campaign announced 13 additional members of his national finance team, including Neil Bush and his wife Maria. Neil is, of course, the brother of former Florida governor and failed presidential candidate Jeb Bush.
“These additions bolster the evidence that Republicans are continuing to coalesce and unite behind Ted Cruz,” Cruz’s campaign declared in a press release.
“We are seeing incredible momentum around our campaign,” said Cruz. “I am thrilled to welcome these new members to our outstanding team. This race is winnowing down between two candidates and this is further testament that conservatives are continuing to unite behind this campaign.”
A coalition of Florida mayors has pleaded for presidential candidates to be asked about climate change and sea level rises during forthcoming debates in Miami, fueling criticism of the “ridiculous” lack of questions on the subjects in TV debates so far.
The group of 21 mayors, comprising Democrats and Republicans, has written to the moderators of the Democratic and Republican TV debates to argue it would be “unconscionable for these issues of grave concern for the people of Florida to not be addressed”.
The letter states that candidates should be asked about reductions to greenhouse gas emissions and investments in coastal infrastructure during the Miami debates. The Democratic debate, hosted by Univision and the Washington Post, will take place on Wednesday, with the Republican event, handled by CNN, Salem Radio and the Washington Times, held on Thursday.
Democratic presidential frontrunner and former first lady Hillary Clinton will break from the campaign trail only three days before the crucial Ohio and Florida primaries to attend the funeral of former first lady Nancy Reagan, according to a campaign staffer.
.@HillaryClinton is going to drop off the trail briefly on Friday to attend Nancy Reagan's funeral services in California.
— Nick Merrill (@NickMerrill) March 8, 2016
The service, held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, will be private, although the public will be able to pay its respects when the widow of former president Ronald Reagan lies in repose at the library grounds on Wednesday and Thursday. Although Barack Obama will not attend the funeral, Michelle Obama will join Clinton in attending.
Nancy Reagan from congestive heart failure on Sunday at the age of 94.
Standing outside Emerson Middle School in Livonia, a predominately-white Detroit suburb, Richard Stover said he was self-volunteering for billionaire Donald Trump - evident by the military veteran’s red “Make America Great Again” hat.
Stover, 73, said he voted for Trump because of his focus on jobs and immigration.
“Jobs in this country I think need to be brought back here,” he said. “We’ve shipped over three million jobs out of this country - not just Michigan, but Ohio and other states.”
Stover said he believes Trump is the right candidate to create jobs in the US because “he’s the only one talking about it.”
“If no one else is talking about it, I don’t know they feel,” he said. “I mean, really, you can sort of catch the wave he’s brought up the issues. That’s’ sort of the way I’ve felt about Cruz, and Rubio, and John Kasich. Anyone can ride the wave after someone else.
Asked about Trump’s penchant for incendiary remarks, Stover didn’t hesitate to say he’d prefer to see the businessman and reality TV star “tone it down a little bit.”
“I think everybody sort of [would] - even some of his supporters,” he said. “But … he stands up and says what he means and means what he says.”
When it rains, it polls:
According to a new ABC News/Washington Post national survey, billionaire Republican frontrunner Donald Trump’s national lead among Republican voters is narrowing, and the New York real estate tycoon loses in head-to-head face-offs with his two closest competitors for the Republican nomination.
According to ABC News and the Washington Post, 34% of registered Republican and Republican-leaning voters support Trump’s candidacy for the party’s nomination. Behind him: Texas senator Ted Cruz, with the support of 25% of Republican voters, Florida senator Marco Rubio with 18% and Ohio governor John Kasich at 13%. Those latter three numbers show increases of 4, 7 and 11 points since January, while Trump’s support has softened by 3 points.
In hypothetical one-on-one contests against Cruz and Rubio, Trump fails to win a majority of Republicans to his cause: Cruz leads Trump 54% to 41%, and Rubio leads 51% to 45%.
Sounds the poll klaxon!
Billionaire Republican frontrunner Donald Trump is leading Florida senator Marco Rubio by 20 points in the senator’s home state, according to a News 13/Bay News 9 poll released this afternoon.
With one week before Florida’s winner-take-all Republican primary, Trump earns the support of 42% of likely Republican presidential primary voters, with Rubio receiving 22% and Texas senator Ted Cruz trailing with the support of 17% of Florida Republicans.
These latest poll run counter to the findings of a Monmouth University poll released yesterday that showed Rubio trailing Trump by a mere eight points. The News 13/Bay News 9 poll is, however, consistent with many other surveys showing the real estate tycoon leading the state with a double-digit lead among likely Republican voters.
According to RealClearPolitics’ polling average, Trump is leading the remaining Republican field of candidates in Florida, with a 16-point lead over Rubio. During an interview on CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday, Rubio wouldn’t answer Dana Bash’s question of whether he would drop out of the presidential race if he lost his home state’s primary.
The mothers of two black teens killed by gun violence have criticized Bernie Sanders for a recent comment about “ghettos” and his position on guns.
Sybrina Fulton and Lucia McBath, the mothers of Trayvon Martin and Jordan Davis, who have campaigned for Clinton, said the senator was “wrong” to associate the Black experience with growing up in a ghetto.
“Senator Sanders is wrong to suggest that the concept of the ghetto is inextricably connected to Black America, just as he was wrong to yet again defend his NRA-backed position on guns,” Fulton said in a statement released through Clinton’s campaign.
Asked during Sunday night’s CNN debate in Flint to identify a racial blind spot, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders said that many white Americans “don’t know what it’s like to be living in a ghetto” and “don’t know what it’s like to be poor”.
The moment immediately set off a Twitter storm, and the Clinton campaign immediately seized on the moment to portray Sanders as out of touch on race.
Sanders tried to clarify the comments on Monday night during the Fox News Forum.
“In African American communities you have people who are living in desperation, often being abused by white police officers. That is a bad thing,” Sanders said. “I’m fighting to reform a broken criminal justice system.” Sanders also noted that he is aware of white poverty, which he said exists in his home state of Vermont.
The senator has struggled to broaden his appeal to African American voters, losing by wide margins in southern states with populous black electorates.
Poll: Mitt Romney's #NeverTrump speech backfired massively
Mitt Romney’s speech deriding Republican frontrunner Donald Trump as “a phony” and “a fraud” did his cause more harm than good, according to a poll released this morning.
According to Morning Consult, 31% of Republican voters say that they are more likely to vote for the New York billionaire after Romney’s speech, with only one in five Republicans saying that the former Massachusetts governor’s remarks made them less likely to vote for Trump. Forty-three percent told Morning Consult that Romney’s remarks had no bearing at all on their decision.
Among Trump’s supporters, 56% said that Romney’s speech, in which he warned that Trump’s ambitions “must not be married to real power,” made them more likely to vote for the real estate tycoon. Only 5% said that it made them less likely to vote for him.
Even among those who voted for Romney in 2012, the former governor’s speech backfired: 30% declared that they were more likely to vote for Trump, while only 20% were less likely.
Score one for the in-person interview!
This morning, CBS refused to conduct a phoner with Republican frontrunner Donald Trump after he pulled out from an on-camera interview on CBS This Morning at the last minute.
Chris Licht, vice president of CBS News and executive producer the network’s morning show, tweeted that Trump wasn’t able to join the show in person - and that the network wouldn’t take his phone call.
Unfortunately @realDonaldTrump suddenly unable to join @CBSThisMorning via camera- we won't take on the phone- so we'll wait for next time!
— Chris Licht (@ChrisLicht) March 8, 2016
Trump is notorious for preferring phone interviews with morning news shows than doing on-camera interviews either in person or via satellite. Evidence: He was interviewed by phone this morning on ABC, Fox News, NBC and MSNBC.
Former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney didn’t endorse any one candidate in the speech he gave last week lambasting the current Republican frontrunner, but he has given Florida senator Marco Rubio a hint.
One week before Rubio’s home state heads to the polls in Florida’s winner-take-all primary, Romney has recorded a get-out-the-vote robocall for the senator’s presidential campaign.
Once again declining to explicitly endorse Rubio, Romney’s call nevertheless calls him “a candidate who can defeat Hillary Clinton and who can make us proud,” according to the New York Times.
Rubio is a candidate who can defeat Clinton - and more importantly, Donald Trump, according to the call.
“If we Republicans were to choose Donald Trump as our nominee, I believe that the prospects for a safe and prosperous future would be greatly diminished - and I’m convinced Donald Trump would lose to Hillary Clinton,” Romney says in the call.
Bernie Sanders told attendees of a campaign rally in Michigan yesterday that he has tried marijuana twice in his life - and that it made him cough a lot:
He added that heroin addiction must be tackled but dismisses comparisons between the “killer drug” and marijuana.
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will face significant tests of strength in Michigan tonight, the blue-collar industrial state that has emerged as an important milestone on the path to the White House, write Dan Roberts and Ben Jacobs.
Despite taking commanding leads in their nomination races after Super Tuesday, both candidates face an unpredictable electorate with the potential to surprise – particularly in the Republican contest where a backlash against Trump is growing.
Clinton’s dominance among Democrats appears much more secure, thanks to her overwhelming support among southern voters. But Bernie Sanders took three out of four states and a majority of delegates over the weekend, and the former secretary of state is still looking for a first convincing win in the north.
With Michigan reeling from a water contamination crisis in Flint and long-term economic decline in Detroit, the state provides an intense test bed for the anti-establishment anger that has characterised the election so far.
Updated
Michigan governor Rick Snyder is not a popular figure following the Flint water crisis:
Poster in downtown Detroit pic.twitter.com/aWT0QVcAw5
— Lauren Gambino (@LGamGam) March 8, 2016
Updated
The Guardian’s Ryan Felton and Lauren Gambino report from last night’s Democratic town hall forum in Detroit, Michigan, on the even of today’s primary:
Sanders, the Vermont senator self-described democratic socialist, first answered questions from Fox News anchor Bret Baier over his comments in Sunday’s debate that white people “don’t know what it’s like to be living in a ghetto.” The remark drew swift condemnation on social media.
Sanders said he knows “about white poverty” from living in Vermont, and added the US has “too many people living in poverty” for being “the richest country in the history of the world.”
“We have got to change our national priorities,” he told the crowd of 250 in Detroit’s Gem Theatre. “We have got to deal with those issues.”
Sanders touched on foreign policy in response to a question from a local resident, Clark Dawood, on Isis. “Isis is a barbaric organization that must be destroyed,” Sanders said. “The question is, how can we do it most effectively.” The war in Iraq, he added, has taught him the US should not act alone in warfare.
“I will do everything I can to keep American troops out of perpetual warfare in the Middle East,” he said. Sanders also addressed the toxic water crisis in Flint, Michigan, where environmental advocates - including actor Mark Ruffalo and billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer - urged officials on Monday to craft long-term solutions for the city’s residents.
“Look, in the wealthiest country in the history of the world, we should be having a Flint, Michigan,” Sanders said. “That is beyond disgraceful.”
When Clinton took the stage, Baier pressed her on the decision to intervene in Libya and overthrow the country’s former leader Muammar Gaddafi. She continued to defend her role in the 2011 air strikes against Gaddafi, and said “it’s fair to say” Libya would resemble the current environment of Syria, which has been devastated by a yearslong civil war, without the intervention.
The former US secretary of state was asked by an attendee on how she’d accomplish anything as president, given a US congress that’s prone to inaction. Clinton said her record shows she has a track record of working across the aisle.
“When I’m not running for something, Republicans say really nice things about me … because I did work with them, and I will work with them, ” she said.
Clinton was also pressed for response on her support of the 1994 crime bill signed by her husband, legislation viewed as a catalyst for the explosion in the US incarceration rate. “There were problems that were solved [on crime],” she said, “but there were mistakes made in that bill. And one of them was, although it was just about the federal system, it set off a chain reaction where more and more people ended up being incarcerated, who, in my opinion, should not have been.”
A teenager asked Clinton whether she considered Sanders an adversary or an ally, to which Clinton quickly replied: “oh, an ally, for sure!”
She added: “We have to rip away the school-to-prison pipeline and replace it with a cradle-to-college pipeline.”
Baier’s final question for both candidates focused on the prospect of Sanders running on Clinton’s ticket if she wins the nomination. Sanders reiterated that he intends to stay in the race through the party’s convention this summer. “We’re talking about running this campaign to win to become president of the United States,” he said.
Clinton had only recently agreed to attend the forum, after initially citing a campaign conflict and after Sanders said he would participate. This was her first sit down interview with Fox News in two years, according to the network.
Updated
It's primary day in Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho and Hawaii
Good morning, and welcome to our minute-by-minute coverage of the Republican and Democratic presidential nominating contests. Today is what we’re affectionately calling a Midwest Test for presidential aspirants from both parties, with 150 Republican delegates and 179 Democratic delegates at stake.
A quick breakdown of tonight’s states and standings:
- Mississippi: The night’s first polls close for both parties in the Magnolia State primaries at 8pm EST. Although polling is relatively scant, the most recent indices show billionaire Republican frontrunner Donald Trump with a double-digit lead in the state and on the Democratic side former secretary of state Hillary Clinton on her way to a 40-point blowout.
- Idaho: The state’s Republican-only primary closes at 11pm EST, with Trump leading in the one small-sample poll available.
- Hawaii: The island state’s Republican caucuses will close at 1am EST. There’s nothing available in the way of substantive or recent polling, so whoever can grab the state’s 19 Republican delegates is sort of ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
- Michigan: The crown jewel of today’s contests, tonight’s primary results from the keystone of the Rust Belt will be announced after the polls close at 9pm EST. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Trump leading the state by more than 12 points, although the three remaining Republican candidates have been pushing hard for a share of the Michigan delegates. On the Democratic side, Clinton’s commanding 21-point polling lead over Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, paired with her standings in Mississippi, could mean a lockout for the democratic socialist senator.
An important thing to remember: Margins of victory are everything here. Both frontrunners are hoping to pad their already considerable delegate leads, and smaller-than-anticipated margins of victory could threaten the “inevitability” argument on both sides.
We’ll be covering the lead up to tonight’s contests from around the country, with the Guardian’s Matthew Teague in Mississippi, Ben Jacobs and Lauren Gambino in Detroit, Ryan Felton also in Michigan, and Dan Roberts and Sabrina Siddiqui in Washington DC.
Updated
