The UK's coronavirus death toll could be nearly 20,000 higher than the official figure, a former analyst for the Office of National Statistics has said.
Jamie Jenkins, who used to be the head health analyst at the ONS, said the actual death toll could be close to 47,000.
The official number of people who have died from coronavirus in the UK has risen to 28,131, Housing Minister Robert Jenrick confirmed on Saturday.
The death toll includes fatalities in hospitals, care homes, and the wider community.
But Mr Jenkins believes the true toll is much higher when the difference between the number of deaths since the outbreak began and the average number in the same period over the past five years is taken into account.
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Taking to Twitter he wrote: "Up to the 01 May 2020, estimate 47,200 deaths related to the Covid-19 UK pandemic in Great Britain. This done by adjusting for deaths in the community and excess deaths related to the Covid-19 pandemic but not necessarily recorded as such."
NHS England and Public Health Wales release a daily update of the number of coronavirus patients who have died in hospital. And since last week the Department of Health has started including coronavirus deaths in the community in the daily death total.
The daily total relates to the day the death happened rather that when it was announced.
Writing in the Spectator, Jamie explains: "The ONS tells us the total number of deaths related to Covid-19 and the day they occur, so you can deduce how many deaths are missed from just focusing on hospitals."
He then explains how he comes to such a figure by using the data from a set number of days.
"I have taken data from 13 to 17 April 2020 and adjusted for deaths on those days not yet included using data from previous weeks. I compared this to hospital data and estimate deaths in the community (at the moment) are equivalent to those in hospitals," he explains.
"The assumption for my estimate is that total Covid-19 related deaths are double the daily hospital figures. This is in line with information from the National Records of Scotland issued on 29 April 2020, where deaths in the community were slightly more than double those in hospital for the latest Scottish data."
ONS data says 80 to 90 per cent of extra deaths involve Covid-19 but many others could have died due to the virus without having been testsed.
His analysis also takes into consideration fewer deaths from things like road deaths due to less people driving during the lockdown.
He continued: "Adjusting for the factors described, I estimate the total number of deaths in England and Wales related to the Covid-19 pandemic – directly and indirectly – to be around 42,300 as of 29 April.
"This is the total number of deaths reported by the ONS up to 17 April and those dying in hospital in the period since (adjusted to account for community deaths and excess deaths occurring but not being specifically coded as Covid-19). In Scotland I estimate deaths linked to Covid-19 of 2,980, resulting in total deaths of around 45,280 in Great Britain.
"The good news is the hospital data we have so far would suggest we have moved beyond the peak in weekly deaths. But we need to wait until the official estimates to ensure deaths in the community have not gone up at a faster rate to offset this."
He later tweeted that his estimate is now 47,200 based on the most recent data.
Jamie added: "Good news - we are past the peak in weekly deaths. Not so good news - I think we will continue with total deaths above the usual 9,700 per week average for the foreseeable future.
"I have tweeted lots on the numbers of people dying related to the current Covid-19 UK situation. Stats help us understand societal impacts but on this Sunday morning let's not forget every single death is more than a number & they represent a life lost and a family tragedy."
