Spoiler alert: this blog details events up to the seventh episode of the second season of True Detective.
As season two of True Detective heads towards a no-doubt-bloody 90-minute conclusion, the show’s convoluted central mystery remains unsolved. So, just who killed Ben Caspere and left him with his eyes burned out at a rest stop? Here’s our guide to the field’s runners and riders …
Laura (aka Erica) and Leonard Osterman
Reasons for: The prime suspects after last week’s tense episode, in which our trio of detectives worked out that Erica, AKA Caspere’s seemingly omnipresent assistant, was the little orphan from the 1992 jewellery robbery all grown up. We haven’t officially met her brother and probable accomplice yet, although the smart money says he’s the set photographer she was talking to in episode three.
Reasons against: None, really. They have motive (Caspere was one of a quartet of corrupt officers who murdered their parents in the LA riots jewel heist), means and opportunity. Plus, the idea of tangential characters being the murderers feels true to the Nic Pizzolatto ethos.
Odds: Odds-on
Lieutenant Kevin Burris
For: He’s the Dudley Smith of the series, a sharp-suited corrupt cop who always seems to be in the right place at the right time. He’s one of the original foursome who carried out the jewel heist, and he popped poor old Paul Woodrugh last week. Plus, he’s played by James Frain, which is pretty much shorthand for “he’s a villain”.
Against: While I’m not ruling out the possibility that Burris is tying up loose ends and, having got rid of Caspere and Teague Dixon, will also see off Holloway, it seems a messy sort of conspiracy; it was Caspere’s death that opened the whole can of long-buried worms in the first place.
Odds: 3-1
Osip Agranov
For: Scary Russian mobster bloke intent on bringing Frank Semyon’s empire crashing down. Caspere’s death allowed him to begin that process.
Against: It’s arguable that Osip merely acted opportunistically, in that Caspere’s death gave him the chance to take advantage of Frank’s vulnerability. That said, if the old question for all murders is cui bono (who benefits), the answer in the murder of Caspere is definitely Osip.
Odds: 5-1
Jacob McCandless
For: He’s the head of shady holding company Catalyst and seemingly the man behind the much-hinted-at larger conspiracy, which seems to go all the way up to senate level. If Caspere knew about the land deals up north, it would make sense for McCandless to take him out.
Against: It’s possible – and would fit the Chinatown echoes of this season – but there’s no reason to doubt Blake’s dying insistence that Catalyst was shocked by Caspere’s death. Also, the land conspiracy has been rather on the backburner for the past few episodes.
Odds: 6-1
Police Chief Holloway
For: Like Burris, he’s a corrupt cop, and one of the original gang of four who carried out the jewel store attack. He also has links to the shadowy Black Mountain security group that Paul Woodrugh was a member of.
Against: It seems more likely that Burris would be tying up loose ends than Holloway, who appears more to be reacting to events as they happen.
Odds: 8-1
Mayor Austin Chessani
For: The city’s mayor is a drunken sleazeball with hands in every Vinci pie, but does that make him a murderer? I’d say not – although he was involved in the original diamond cover-up. Plus, his daughter stressed that he was a “bad man”, which is not a lighthearted accusation in the True Detective world.
Against: He was keen to get the Caspere murder cleared up. And he seems like he couldn’t organise a piss-up in a brewery (mainly because he’d be too busy getting drunk).
Odds: 10-1
Tony Chessani
For: Tony is even sleazier than his father, and was the motivating force behind the creepy sex orgies Caspere attended. He’s clearly keen to take over daddy’s empire, and is part of the plot against Frank that included Osip, Catalyst and the late, unlamented Blake. In addition to holding on to the diamonds from the heist, Caspere was also holding on to blackmail pictures from the orgies. Did he play too many sides?
Against: Blake swore Catalyst was shocked by Caspere’s untimely demise, which suggests that, if Tony is guilty, he acted alone, and I’m not sure I buy that – he seems more pimp than killer.
Odds: 12-1
Nails
For: Frank seems to take Nails’s support on trust, but the last seven episodes have conclusively demonstrated that Frank Semyon isn’t very good at spotting a giant conspiracy to take him down when its staring him in the face. Is Nails really the loyal lieutenant he claims to be?
Against: It would be a pretty leftfield revelation (although not an impossible one).
Odds: 14-1
Teague Dixon
Reasons for: The fourth member of the jewel heist gang, Teague – who died during the shootout from hell back in episode four – knew about the diamonds before anyone else. Why? Could he have done the dirty on old pal Ben Caspere, thus sparking the whole case?
Reasons against: The out-of-shape Teague didn’t exactly seem like the innovative type. Or, indeed, the type of person who would leave the bottle alone long enough to pull the trigger. Still, there’s just enough mystery surrounding his actions to make him a decent each-way bet.
Odds: 16-1
Jordan Semyon
For: Frank’s wife turned up suspiciously swiftly after he offed Blake – and looked very shifty to boot. Also, she gets along pretty well with Osip and is clearly made of steel behind the fragile exterior. She could easily be the brains behind the double-cross of her husband.
Against: Probably not guilty of Caspere’s murder, but may well be setting her husband up to take a fall ...
Odds: 18-1
Eliot Bezzerides
For: What exactly went on in Papa Bezzerides’s commune? Is he really the innocent and regretful old hippy he makes out? Why did so many of Vinci’s “finest” hang out at the commune in the past? Has he really cut all ties with that world or is he part of the cover-up?
Against: He seems more repentant sinner than master criminal. Also, he’s way too spaced out to carry out a killing.
Odds: 20-1
Detective Ray Velcoro
For: Until last week I would have said Paul Woodrugh was the most likely killer of our trio of detectives, but his sudden death probably puts paid to that theory (see below). But could Ray be pulling a long con on Ani and the audience? He has stressed he is a bad man, but does his guilt extend to covering up a murder?
Against: Seems unlikely. Ray is guilt-ridden, compromised and a dirty cop, but I don’t quite think he’s a murderer. Nor, seemingly, did the mysterious Birdman.
Odds: 33-1
Officer Paul Woodrugh
For: He discovered Caspere’s body. He’s a man with a double life who’s clearly very good at keeping secrets. There were hints that he had a tendency to black out the more troubling moments in his life, such as, say, burning out someone’s with acid.
Against: He met a sudden end last week. It seems more likely he was just what he seemed to be: a troubled veteran with sexuality issues and problems readjusting to civilian life.
Odds: 40-1
Detective Ani Bezzerides
For: There’s absolutely no reason to suspect Ani, the third of our detective trio, which makes me suspect her all the more.
Against: See above.
Odds: 50-1
The depressing country singer in the bar
Reasons for: She’s got a lot of free time on her hands when not singing gloomy songs in the world’s worst-lit bar. Who knows what’s really going on behind those ditties of devastation and despair?
Reasons against: Much as it would amuse me, it’s not gonna happen.
Odds: 66-1
Stan
Reasons for: Just why is Frank so cut up about the death of Stan, a character most of us had forgotten about entirely? Who was he to him? His reaction seems to suggest more than a mere employee. Plus, why introduce Stan’s devastated family unless there’s going to be a big reveal? Everyone else could have murdered Caspere, so, heck, why not poor, dead Stan?
Reasons against: Chalk this one down to slightly off writing and accept that Frank cares about Stan because, well, he just does, OK?
Odds: 100-1
