SACRAMENTO, Calif. — In the wake of a pandemic that has devastated Latino communities in California, a new statewide poll finds that Latino voters are more likely to vote to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom than white, Asian and Black voters.
The Probolsky Research poll released this week found that 44.5% of Latino voters said they would vote for Newsom to be recalled from office, while 41% said they would vote no. About 14% were undecided.
The poll results offer a glimpse of Latino voters' attitudes toward the Democratic governor amid the coronavirus pandemic.
"It really just speaks to the current state of affairs of Latinos being disproportionately impacted health-wise and economically by this pandemic," said Adam Probolsky, president of the nonpartisan opinion research firm.
Additionally, the poll showed about 49% of white voters, 49% of Asian voters and 72% of Black voters said they would vote no on the recall. Overall, about 52.5% of California voters surveyed said they would vote no on the recall, compared with 34.6% who would vote yes.
Linda Martinez-Hanna, a health care aide living in El Dorado Hills, said she signed a recall petition last November after becoming frustrated by the business closures across California brought on by the pandemic and paying too much in state taxes.
"I wasn't happy with Newsom" before the pandemic, said Martinez-Hanna, 60, adding that she has attended rallies supporting the recall effort. "He wants to control what we're doing."
Martinez-Hanna said she doesn't identify as a Democrat or Republican, but as a conservative.
The majority (58%) of likely Latino voters in California are Democrats, compared with 16% who are Republican, according to data from the Public Policy Institute of California. About 20% of likely Latino voters say they are independent.
For Probolsky, the poll results prove Latinos voters are more than "party-line Democrats" whose support requires more attention from politicians and policymakers.
"It's important not to assume that it's a partisan thing," he said.
In California, Latinos account for nearly 40% of the population but represent about half of the state's COVID-19 cases and deaths. Latinos have also been among the hardest hit by job losses during the health crisis.
Throughout the pandemic, Latino advocacy groups have criticized the state for not stemming the spread of COVID-19 in Latino neighborhoods and for the unequal distribution of COVID-19 vaccines to Latinos.
Earlier this month, Newsom announced a new plan to allot 40% of the state's COVID-19 vaccines to vulnerable residents living in neighborhoods with high rates of infection. As of March 24, only 19% of vaccines administered have gone to Latino Californians, according to state data.
"This should not be a surprise," said Mike Madrid, a Latino voting trends expert and co-founder of The Lincoln Project. "We have a community that has been particularly hard hit by the infection and death rates, along with the economic impacts. And the response for Latinos has been a failure. There's no other way around it. This shows that."
As the recall inches closer to qualifying for the November ballot, Madrid said the poll results signal trouble for Newsom.
"That's a very unique and troubling development for the governor and I don't think it's going to be easily remedied because if they had the solution and message it's something they would've been articulating for years," he said. "There are clear warning signs here."
California GOP Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson criticized Newsom's choice to dine at the French Laundry last year to celebrate a friend's birthday party during the pandemic, as Latino communities struggled with school closures, COVID-19 shutdowns and contacting the state's unemployment department.
"The Latino community has been devastated by this governor's incompetence," she said in a statement. "Latinos are fed up with empty words and double standards."
But the polling data suggests Latino voters are not a lost cause for the administration, according to Probolsky.
"While not wildly popular," Probolsky said, "he is not in the desperately precarious position that I think a lot of people would put him in."
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(Hannah Wiley of The Sacramento Bee's Capitol Bureau contributed to this report.)
