Tropical system headed for the gulf is looking stronger than expected

A low-pressure system from Georgia is looking certain to strengthen into a tropical storm by the end of the week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The disturbance is moving toward the south and should be over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

"Once the disturbance is over water, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system moves westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico," Senior Hurricane Specialist John Cangialosi wrote in an update early Tuesday.

If the weather system reaches tropical storm strength, it would be named Barry. There isn't yet enough information to forecast an accurate track, however.

"There have been some models showing it moving toward Florida, some showing it moving toward Texas and some showing it just sitting there meandering," The Weather Channel noted late Monday.

The system could potentially bring rain _ and a lot of it _ to South Florida.

The system is being given a 40% chance of developing over the next two days and an 80% chance of developing over the next five days.

Development or not, heavy rain can be expected along the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida Peninsula.

So far, the weather forecast calls for South Floridians to experience the typical summer pattern that usually includes thunderstorms and heavy rain during the afternoon and evening hours.

Storms that form early in the season tend to arise closer to North America than those that develop in the late summer and fall. Those later storms typically become depressions and tropical storms in the Atlantic, giving South Florida plenty of time to track and dread their progress.

South Florida was unscathed through the 2018 hurricane season, but in 2017 we weathered a hit from Hurricane Irma, which struck the Keys brushed along the Gulf Coast, battering most of the state. The storm killed 72 people across Florida, including a dozen residents at a Hollywood nursing home that lost its air conditioning as Irma passed.

Hurricane season began on June 1 and will continue through Nov. 30, though storms have been known to develop before and after those dates.

This year's hurricane forecast predicts between nine and 15 named storms, four to eight of which would be hurricanes. Between two and four are predicted to be major hurricanes, category 3 or higher.