A tropical weather system churning along the east coast is showing signs of weakening, with the odds of a cyclone forming growing slimmer, National Hurricane Center forecasters said Monday evening.
A hurricane-hunting plane sent to investigate the storm found that the wave had not become any better organized during the day as expected. With the system set to face increasing wind shear that can shred storms, forecasters said the chance of a cyclone forming is diminishing. If a cyclone does form, they said, it will likely happen over the next day as the storm slides along the North Carolina coast.
Without a defined structure, tracking the wave also becomes less certain, they warned, although they expect the wave to continue rolling to the northeast and back out to sea.
On Monday evening, the system was about 65 miles south of Charleston, S.C., and moving northeast at 12 mph. Tops winds remained about 40 mph. A tropical storm warning covered much of the North Carolina coast, where the storm should arrive Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward about 85 miles from the storm's center. Forecasters put the odds of a cyclone forming at 70 percent.
Even if no cyclone forms, forecasters said the storm could still drop heavy rain. Last week as it meandered over South Florida, the system drenched the state, putting rain totals above historical averages. Parts of the Carolina coasts and southeast Virginia could get 3 to 6 inches of rain, with up to 9 inches possible in some places, they said.
Forecasters also said a wave coming off Africa could become a cyclone over the next day or two in the eastern Atlantic. The system is moving northwest at 15 to 20 mph, heading toward weaker wind shear. Forecasters said the system had an 80 percent chance of forming over the next five days.
