MIAMI _ Tropical Storm Nate crossed northeastern Nicaragua on Thursday, spreading heavy rain as it heads toward a potential strike along the U.S. Gulf coast.
At 5 p.m. Eastern time, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said Nate was more disorganized after it made landfall but its sustained winds remained at 40 mph and the storm was expected to strengthen when it emerges back into the Caribbean early Friday. While hurricane models shifted the storm solidly to the west, Florida's Panhandle could still see some impact _ at the very least from Nate's gusty outer bands.
The system is expected to approach the coast early Sunday, but forecasters warned it's still too early to say where it will strike. Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the western Panhandle were all potential destinations.
Models also remained split on Nate's potential strengthening as it crosses the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico late Friday. Some show winds increasing by nearly 75 mph over the next 72 hours, a dramatic strengthening, while others indicate only a slight increase to a weak hurricane. Forecasters bumped things up a bit, calling for Nate to be a Category 1 storm with sustained winds of 80 mph as it nears the U.S. coast. But they cautioned that the tricky forecast involving two land crossings could complicate projections.
Parts of Nicaragua, Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula and nearby islands are under a tropical storm warning. The wet storm is expected to dump heavy rain, with 15 to 20 inches in Costa Rica and Panama, and up to 30 inches possible in places. Honduras and Belize could get between 5 and 10 inches.
Blame the heavy rain drenching South Florida Thursday on a separate tropical system hovering over the Florida Straits about 50 miles southwest of Key West. High wind shear will keep the system from organizing into a tropical cyclone, but gusty winds and torrential rain are expected to continue over the next couple of days. Combined with a coming seasonal king tide, South Florida is likely in for widespread flooding in the coming days.
Nate is being steered by a high pressure ridge over the southeastern Bahamas and central Caribbean. Over the weekend, another ridge is expected to build over the southeast U.S. coast and move the storm more to the northwest at a faster speed. Models that differed Wednesday now agree the storm will likely move more to the west.
Crossing Nicaragua could shake up Nate's core, leading to the disagreement over future strengthening. As it swings back over warm ocean water, it will likely regain strength, forecasters said. But how much depends on how organized the core remains, they said.
The storm comes more than a month before the end of a record-breaking season that had been forecast to be above average. During the historical peak of the season in September, a new record was set for the highest amount of hurricane energy in a single month. The most number of hurricane days also occurred, according to Colorado State meteorologist Phil Klotzbach.
In under 30 days, three major hurricanes formed with lethal results: Harvey, Irma and Maria.
