ORLANDO, Fla. _ Tropical Storm Karen is moving north through the Caribbean Sea prompting tropical storm warnings for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
According to the National Hurricane Center's 8 a.m. update Monday, Karen's 8 mph northwest movement has it passing over the U.S. territories on Tuesday. It's center was located 245 miles south of St. Croix.
A tropical storm watch remained in effect for the British Virgin Islands.
The storm has kept maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, which can be felt outward up to 105 miles mainly to the northeast and southeast of the center, the NHC said.
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands could receive between 2 to 4 inches rain with isolated areas of 6 inches, which could bring flash flooding and mudslides, the NHC warned.
The NHC's five-day forecast model shows the storm eventually shifting west after heading north out of the Caribbean and back into the Atlantic. Various computer forecasts show the storm may end up moving toward Georgia and South Carolina, but another model with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows a possible turn toward Florida by the end of the week.
In the short-term, NHC meteorologists predict Karen could downgrade to a tropical depression before it passes near Puerto Rico because of wind shear and dry air hindering its development.
"Karen's convective pattern has become quite disheveled looking this morning due to 20 to 25 knots of northeasterly vertical wind shear," said NHC forecaster Stacy Stewart. "I would not be surprised if Karen has weakened to a tropical depression based on the lack of significant convection."
Winds do not favor Karen's development over the next 24 hours.
Long-term projections, though, have it rebuilding strength once it heads north back into the Atlantic, when models also have it slowing and shifting to the west, with 70 mph winds by Saturday.
"By days 4 and 5, Karen is forecast to move underneath an upper-level anticyclone, which should allow for more significant intensification to occur," Stewart said.
Farther west, a tropical wave that moved off the African coast in the Atlantic became the 13th tropical depression of the season late Sunday,
As of 5 a.m. Monday, Tropical Depression 13 is projected to become Tropical Storm Lorenzo later today, was located 315 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands with 35 mph sustained winds headed west at 15 mph.
"A motion toward the west-northwest is expected tonight and Tuesday," forecasters said.
The projected path keeps it south of the Cabo Verde Islands, and while it is projected to grow into a hurricane by Tuesday, its five-day path keeps it in the mid-Atlantic with no threat to land.
Meanwhile, the 10th named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Jerry, maintained intensity after dropping from hurricane strength earlier this week. As of 8 a.m. Monday, the storm had 65 mph winds as it headed north-northwest at 7 mph about 355 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, which is now under a tropical storm warning.
The storm is no longer predicted to regain hurricane strength as it passes near Bermuda, which this week dealt with the effects of Hurricane Humberto.
(Orlando Sentinel staff writer Richard Tribou contributed to this report.)
