ORLANDO, Fla. _ Tropical Storm Karen is moving north through the Caribbean Sea prompting tropical storm warnings for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands while Tropical Storm Lorenzo formed in the Atlantic Ocean.
According to the National Hurricane Center's 2 p.m. EDT update Monday, Karen was moving north-northwest at 12 mph, targeting the U.S. territories and the British Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Its center was located 195 miles south of St. Croix.
While residents living in a tropical storm warning zone should take precautions, the NHC identified Karen as having a poorly organized center, as of 2 p.m.
The storm has kept maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, which can be felt outward up to 105 miles mainly to the northeast and southeast of the center, the NHC said.
The Caribbean land masses could receive between 2 to 4 inches rain with isolated areas of 8 inches, which could bring flash flooding and mudslides, the NHC warned.
The NHC's five-day forecast model shows the storm eventually shifting west after heading north out of the Caribbean and back into the Atlantic. Various computer forecasts show the storm may end up moving toward Georgia and South Carolina, but another model with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows a possible turn toward Florida by the end of the week.
NHC meteorologists predict Karen could downgrade to a tropical depression or lose its tropical cyclone status altogether before it passes near Puerto Rico because of wind shear and dry air hindering its development.
"It is also possible that Karen could degenerate into an open wave, if it has not done so already," said the NHC's senior hurricane specialist Daniel Brown. "Regardless of whether or not Karen is a tropical cyclone when it passes near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the system is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds in squalls and heavy rainfall over those areas."
Winds do not favor Karen's development over the next 24 hours.
Long-term projections, though, have it rebuilding strength once it heads north back into the Atlantic, when models also have it slowing and shifting to the west, with 70 mph winds by Saturday.
Farther east, a tropical wave that moved off the African coast in the Atlantic became the 13th tropical depression late Sunday officially became Tropical Storm Lorenzo as of 11 a.m. Monday.
Lorenzo is located 255 miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands with 40 mph winds and headed west at 18 mph.
The projected path keeps it south of the Cabo Verde Islands, and while it is projected to grow into a hurricane by Tuesday, its five-day path keeps it in the mid-Atlantic with no threat to land.
Meanwhile, the 10th named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Jerry, maintained intensity after dropping from hurricane strength earlier this week. As of 11 a.m. Monday, the storm had 65 mph winds as it headed north-northwest at 7 mph about 345 miles southwest of Bermuda, which is now under a tropical storm warning.
The storm, which has tropical-storm-force winds out to 175 miles, is no longer predicted to regain hurricane strength as it passes near Bermuda, which has been dealing with the effects of Hurricane Humberto.
Also, a new tropical disturbance formed in the Gulf of Mexico Monday afternoon near the Yucatan Peninsula, and is expected to move slowly west. The system has a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 and a 20% chance of doing so in the next five days.
