Hurricane Humberto continues to churn in the Sargasso Sea north of the Caribbean, and held on as a powerful category 4 storm on Sunday. Just a day earlier, Humberto briefly reached category 5 status with 160mph sustained winds before it weakened slightly on Sunday.
Humberto is likely to remain offshore and track west of Bermuda on Monday night into Tuesday, but its strength will still send large swells, life-threatening rip currents and surf across the Lesser Antilles and the US east coast over the coming days.
Bermuda is likely to face sustained winds of more than 70mph later on Monday and through Tuesday.
Attention has shifted away from Humberto to a developing system farther west: Tropical Storm Imelda, which was named on Sunday. Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane late Monday on night into Tuesday morning after tracking through the Bahamas and brushing Florida’s east coast. Models are showing a sharp change in the current northward track of the system, with Imelda likely to become a category 1 hurricane veering towards Bermuda on Thursday night.
Even before strengthening, Imelda produced dangerous rainfall across the Caribbean, with flooding in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico causing two deaths on Friday. By Sunday afternoon local time, some private weather stations had already recorded close to 90mm (3.5in) of rain in just 12 hours.
More than 400,000 people in the Dominican Republic faced water supply problems, and mandatory evacuation orders have been made for parts of Grand Bahama, with the international airports shut down on Sunday.
Across Cuba and the Bahamas, respective rainfall totals between 150mm (6in) and 300mm (12in) into Tuesday are forecast by the National Hurricane Centre, with further flash flooding, urban inundation and even mudslides across higher terrain of some Caribbean islands.
The storm’s moisture is also projected to spread into the Carolinas, where rainfall totals reaching more than 170mm (6.6in) are possible by Wednesday, heightening flood concerns along rivers and low-lying areas. A storm surge of 2ft is possible along the Carolinas’ coasts too, with closer to 3ft possible for the Bahamas.
A sharp taste of autumn is set to sweep across eastern Europe later this week, sending temperatures plunging well below seasonal norms. Daytime highs in many areas will struggle to rise beyond the mid-single digits as temperatures tumble more than 10C beneath the average for early October.
Some places, including Sarajevo in Bosnia and Herzegovina, may find themselves closer to 15C below normal. Low pressure will add to the unsettled picture, bringing widespread rain that is forecast to turn to snow at higher elevations across the Dinaric Alps, with up to 30cm of fresh snowfall possible between Thursday and Friday.
