MIAMI — A tropical depression passing near Bermuda is forecast to turn into Tropical Storm Henri soon.
Forecasters are also watching Tropical Storm Fred, which is bringing dangerous storm surge and flooding rain over portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend Region ahead of its Monday landfall. Hispaniola is also bracing for possible flash flooding and mudslides from Tropical Depression Grace.
Here’s what to know:
Tropical Depression Eight near Bermuda to turn into Tropical Storm Henri soon
Tropical Depression Eight was about 140 miles southeast of Bermuda with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph with higher gusts. It’s moving toward the south and is expected to make a “slow clockwise turn” toward the southwest and then toward the west during the next couple of days though there is some disagreement on how sharp the turn will be, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The system is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm sometime Monday and will move well to the south of Bermuda, according to the hurricane center. Bermuda, which is under a tropical storm watch, should expect to feel tropical storm conditions on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island.
A model that has been a “notable high outlier” in several cases this year suggests the storm will strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane in the next two to three days though “given the expected shear, that solution does not appear likely at this point,” the hurricane center said.
The hurricane center’s official forecast keeps it as a strong tropical storm through early Friday. It could see maximum sustained winds up to 65 mph this week.
A Category 1 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph.
Some Florida schools close ahead of Tropical Storm Fred’s expected landfall
Tropical Storm Fred was moving north near 9 mph toward Florida’s Panhandle and is expected to make landfall in the eastern Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon or early evening. Heavy rain and dangerous storm surge are being felt along the coast of the Panhandle and Big Bend Region, according to the hurricane center.
Schools in Bay, Okaloosa, Walton and Santa Rosa counties have canceled classes and after school activities Monday in preparation for Fred, according to CNN. Classes are expected to resume Tuesday.
Fred was about 35 miles southwest of Apalachicola, and has strengthened to maximum sustained winds near 65 mph with higher gusts, pushing forecasters to extend the tropical storm warning for the Big Bend area eastward to the Steinhatchee River.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of the Panhandle and Big Bend from Navarre to the Steinhatchee River. A storm surge warning is also in effect for Florida’s coast from Indian Pass to Yankeetown.
Fred’s tropical storm-force winds extend up to 115 miles from its center. Bald Point recently reported a wind gust of 58 mph.
Forecasters expect Fred will quickly weaken once it’s on land.
Florida’s Panhandle and Big Bend region could see between 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated areas possibly seeing up to 12 inches through Tuesday, according to the hurricane center. Swells caused by Fred could also cause life-threatening rip currents along the coast Monday. A few tornadoes may also be possible Monday over Florida’s west coast and Panhandle area.
“The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. ... The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves,” forecasters wrote.
Forecasters predict a storm surge ranging between 1 and 5 feet, depending on where you are in the state. The most storm surge is expected between Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River, which could see between 3 and 5 feet if it happens during high tide.
Tropical Depression Grace bringing flooding rains To Haiti, Dominican Republic
As of the 2 p.m. EDT advisory, Grace was about 70 miles southeast of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and about 415 miles east of Montego Bay, Jamaica, on Monday. It’s moving quickly west-northwest with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph with higher gusts.
A tropical storm warning was issued for the Cayman Islands and for parts of Cuba’s southern coast, including the provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas and Camaguey. A tropical storm watch was issued for the provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Sipirtus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica and the entire coast of Haiti, which is still reeling from Saturday’s 7.2 magnitude earthquake that has killed about 1,300 people. The tropical storm watch for the Dominican Republic was discontinued.
Grace’s biggest threat to Hispaniola, the island the two nations share, is the possibility of flooding rain. Heavy rains have begun to spread westward across southern Haiti, according to the hurricane center.
Forecasters say Haiti and the Dominican Republic should expect to see 5 to 10 inches of rain with some isolated areas possibly getting as much as 15 inches through Tuesday.
This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and even mudslides, according to the hurricane center.
On the forecast track, Grace should move over or near the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti Monday afternoon through the night and then pass between Jamaica, Cuba and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Its southern track will keep it away from Florida and bring it over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean, where it should strengthen into a tropical storm again by Tuesday.
There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding how strong Grace could get though gradual strengthening as it approaches the Yucatan coast of Mexico is possible.
“Once the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, the shear appears to decrease, and conditions there will likely be conducive for additional strengthening,” forecasters wrote. “In fact, many of the models, including the consensus aids, bring Grace to hurricane intensity, and the NHC intensity forecast has therefore been bumped upward, bringing Grace very near hurricane strength by the end of the forecast period.”
The hurricane center’s official forecast pegs it as a strong tropical storm that should have maximum sustained winds near 70 mph by Saturday.
