Tropical Storm Grace could be near hurricane level strength by the time it approaches the Yucatan coast of Mexico this week, forecasters said Tuesday.
The National Hurricane Center is also eyeing Tropical Storm Henri, which is forecast to loop around Bermuda in the next few days.
The National Hurricane Center issued hurricane warnings for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and a hurricane watch for the Cayman Islands in its 5 p.m. EDT advisory on Tropical Storm Grace.
Tropical storm conditions had been lashing Jamaica and started to spread over eastern Cuba as flooding rains swept over parts of Haiti, according to the National Hurricane Center. But the tropical storm watch for Haiti was discontinued in the 2 p.m. advisory.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center. Kingston, Jamaica’s reporting station noted sustained winds of 47 mph and a gust to 54 mph in the mid- to late-afternoon, Hurricane Specialist Richard Pasch wrote in his 5 p.m. report.
Parts of Hispaniola had also felt Tropical Storm Grace’s flooding rains Tuesday morning as the system neared Jamaica.
The storm is continuing to reorganize, and has held maximum sustained winds of 50 mph with higher gusts, according to the hurricane center.
Grace was about 5 miles east of Montego Bay, Jamaica, and about 225 miles east-southeast of Grand Cayman in the 5 p.m. advisory.
“Regardless of Grace’s exact intensity right now, the immediate threat is still torrential rainfall across western Hispaniola today and over Jamaica this afternoon and tonight, which will likely cause severe flooding in some locations,” Pasch wrote earlier Tuesday.
Haiti, which is still reeling from Saturday’s devastating 7.2 magnitude earthquake that has killed more than 1,000 people, could see 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated areas seeing up to 15 inches of rain across its southern terrain Tuesday, according to the hurricane center. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides.
On the forecast track, Grace should move near the northern coast of Jamaica on Tuesday afternoon and then be by the Cayman Islands late Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
Once it passes Jamaica, Grace is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday, with some additional strengthening possible before its center reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday, Pasch wrote in the advisory.
Grace’s southern track will keep it far away from Florida.
If Grace does become a hurricane when it arrives at the Yucatan Peninsula that will mean it will have achieved winds of at least 74 mph to qualify as a Category 1 hurricane.
The government of Mexico’s new 5 p.m. hurricane warning for the eastern Yucatan Peninsula is from Cancun to Punta Herrero and includes Cozumel.
There is also a new tropical storm warning from north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche and from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya.
Tropical storm warnings are is in effect for:
—Jamaica
—Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas and Camaguey
—Cayman Islands
—Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche
—Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya
A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
—Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud.
Along with Jamaica and Cuba, the Cayman Islands should also feel some of Grace’s tropical storm conditions Tuesday.
Forecasters say portions of southern Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula could see between 3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated areas seeing up to 9 inches of rain through Thursday. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding.
Tropical Storm Henri has steadily strengthened through much of Tuesday, growing another 5 mph in intensity as maximum sustained winds were at 65 mph with higher gusts in the 5 p.m. advisory. Henri crawled west-southwest at 2 mph in the open Atlantic waters — a 4 mph slowdown from the 2 p.m. advisory. Henri was about about 135 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, which is under a tropical storm watch.
Tropical storm conditions are possible Tuesday across Bermuda and the nearby waters, particularly to the south of the island.
Henri is forecast to remain over warm waters in a favorable environment that could cause it to see some strengthening. However, conditions are forecast to become less favorable in the next few days, which should prevent the storm from further strengthening and could possibly weaken the system.
On the forecast track, Henri’s forward motion toward the west is forecast to accelerate and pass well to the south of Bermuda through Tuesday evening and should make a turn toward the west through Tuesday night. It should then pick up its pace slightly and make a turn to the west-northwest or northwest by late Thursday.
Tropical storm-force winds extend about 70 miles from the center.
Forecasters expect this gradual clockwise turn will tug it toward the open Atlantic waters and away from the Southeast United States.
