ORLANDO, Fla. _ Tropical Storm Gonzalo weakened a bit Thursday, but forecasters say it could still develop into the first hurricane of the 2020 season as it continues its westbound journey.
Gonzalo, moving at 13 mph, is about 810 miles east of the southern Windward Islands with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. A turn toward the northwest direction is expected Saturday.
The NHC issued a Hurricane Watch for Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines and a Tropical Storm Watch for Tobago and Grenada, meaning hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible for the area over the next 48 hours before tropical-storm-force winds are felt. The center of Gonzalo is expected to approach the south Windward Islands on Saturday and move across the islands through the weekend where it could bring a maximum of 7 inches of rain.
While Gonzalo is developing quickly and is expected to gain strength over the next two days, meteorologists aren't expecting it to remain in the Atlantic for very long as it trudges through areas of dry air and high wind shear Saturday, said WOFL-TV meteorologist Jayme King.
"Global models show this thing actually diminishing to nothing as it gets into the central Caribbean. It'll be facing increased wind shear and dry air that's out there right now from Africa. That might be the silver bullet for Gonzalo," King said.
Gonzalo is expected to drop back to tropical storm strength by Sunday.
Originally forecasts showed Gonzalo strengthening into a hurricane by Thursday afternoon, but its development appears to have slowed down, King said. As the storm progresses west, and northwest, it is likely to dissipate thanks to the dry Saharan dust from west Africa that typically chokes the moisture out of tropical systems, leaving them without fuel to run.
King is currently looking at another system behind Gonzalo, which the NHC publicly identified Thursday afternoon. Models show the system, larger than "tiny" Gonzalo, taking shape early next week, forecasters said. It has a 20% chance of development in the next five days.
Over in the Gulf of Mexico, tropical depression 8 formed just southwest of Florida and continues to move west toward Texas.
TD 8 is moving at 8 mph and was about 385 miles east-southeast from Port O'Connor, Texas. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. It is expected to make landfall on the Texas coast Saturday.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass, Texas, while San Luis Pass to High Island, Texas, are under a Tropical Storm Watch.
King says a tropical storm is likely to develop, making it the eighth storm of the year and to be named Hannah. TD 8 is expected to produce maximum isolated rainfall totals of 10 inches and generate life-threatening swells around the Texas and Louisiana coasts. While the storm should be taken seriously, most models show that TD 8 is likely to dissipate not long after making landfall.
"Two of the most reliable models showing both of these storms will probably be gone by next week," King said.
While the wave won't directly hit Florida, it will still have an impact on the Sunshine State, bringing showers through the weekend. There was a 50% chance of rain and thunderstorms Thursday, according to the National Weather Service.
The weekend is expected to be pretty wet in Central Florida when those odds increase to 40% Friday, as well as Saturday. Sunday odds increase back to 50%.
The start of a rampant season could begin next week with hurricane models tracking three potential systems spinning the Caribbean and the mid Atlantic. Meteorologists may be kept on their toes especially with the Gulf of Mexico's surface temperatures resting at 93 degrees.
"The lid comes off over in the (Main Development Region) around the Caribbean islands and to the Cape Verde islands near Africa. Several storms could spin out and moving in the westerly directions," King said. "One of those, the models show, could form on top of the Bahamas, although the Hispaniola mountains may rip that up. Even so, we never ignore a signal, and anything could happen. The models don't take the Saharan dust into account, depending on how much of it is in the Caribbean, it could stop anything from forming."
