FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. _ Tropical Storm Gonzalo, which formed Wednesday morning, is expected to become a hurricane Thursday, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
It is one of two tropical disturbances the National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring, and the seventh named storm of an already busy 2020 hurricane season.
As of 11 a.m. EDT, Gonzalo, was located between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, about 1,205 miles east of the Southern Winward Island, with winds at 50 mph. Gusts are expected to increase over the next two days.
It is expected to continue to move at 10 to 15 mph, traveling into the tropical Atlantic. A general westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days, according to the hurricane center.
Levi Cowan, a meteorologist with the hurricane research division of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory tweeted Wednesday morning that the storm's strengthening trend increases the odds of a significant storm impacting the Lesser Antilles by Saturday.
Other named storms this year are Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard and Fay. Tropical Storm Arthur formed in mid-May, making this the sixth straight year that a named storm formed before the official start of hurricane season on June 1.
Virtually all estimates for this hurricane season predict an above-average number of storms, due to unusually warm ocean temperatures and global climate factors that are likely to reduce the high-altitude winds that can prevent the formation of hurricanes.
"Conditions are expected to become less conducive for storm formation/intensification as the system approaches the Caribbean Sea this weekend," Robert Molleda, meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Miami office, said Tuesday. "Nevertheless, parts of the eastern Caribbean Sea and Windward Islands could see an increase in showers and thunderstorms with gusty wind late this week and this weekend. Beyond that, it's difficult to determine what this system might do."
Molleda said there is no immediate threat to South Florida, but said these storms should serve as another reminder to be prepared for the approaching height of hurricane season.
"The time of year when we're more likely to be threatened is approaching (August, September and October)," he said. "Make sure that our hurricane plans are in place now while we have no active threats, so that we're ready to implement them in case we get a threat later in the season."
When hurricane season began June 1, two named storms, Arthur and Bertha, had already come and gone. The next day, Cristobal formed. There have been three tropical storms so far this month: Gonzalo, Edouard, and Fay.
On July 8, Colorado State University issued a slightly more pessimistic outlook for hurricane season than its earlier forecast, upping the number of named storms from 19 to 20. A named storm is a tropical storm or hurricane.
An average season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, with three becoming major hurricanes.
"We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean," the report said.
The report pointed to above-average ocean surface temperatures and the possibility of a La Nina, the cooling of the eastern Pacific Ocean that creates favorable conditions for the formation of Atlantic hurricanes.
In addition to Gonzalo, a cluster of storms moving west-northwest at 15 mph in the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday has a 40-50% chance of developing over the next two days, the hurricane center said in its latest update.
The wave is responsible for disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, central and southern Florida, and western Cuba, according to the hurricane center.
It is expected to move over the central Gulf on Wednesday and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday.
"For South Florida, this means that we will basically have a continuation of the weather pattern of the past few days, with occasional showers and thunderstorms bringing periods of heavy rainfall and gusty wind," Molleda said in an email Tuesday morning.
"We do not expect tropical storm conditions across South Florida, nor do we expect all-day rainfall, just a continuation of the weather we've been experiencing," he continued. "There may be a temporary decrease in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday, but all in all no major changes in our weather pattern through the end of the week and probably into the weekend. Rain chances will be at least 50% each day."
South Florida's weather forecast calls for heavy thunderstorms all week, according to the National Weather Service. Temperatures will range from a low of about 78 degrees to highs of about 90.
