MIAMI — Hurricane Elsa lost wind speed Saturday morning, dropping to Tropical Storm Elsa and staying there as Haiti and the Dominican Republic prepared for impact and the Florida Keys went under tropical storm watch from Craig Key to the Dry Tortugas.
As of the 5 p.m. advisory, the National Hurricane Center said Elsa had the same maximum sustained winds of 70 mph it had at the 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. advisories and was moving west northwest at 28 mph, about 130 miles southwest of Port Au Prince, Haiti and about 195 miles east of Kingston, Jamaica.
Tropical storm level winds extended 125 miles from the center.
“A decrease in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday,” the hurricane center’s advisory said. “On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday.
“By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits,” the advisory continued. “Little change in strength is expected (Saturday night), but gradual weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when Elsa is expected to be near or over Cuba.”
The current conical tracking projects Elsa bumping South Florida sometime Monday. The Florida Keys remain in the projected path while there’s less of Miami-Dade County than the 8 a.m. advisory projected path.
Elsa and Surfside’s Champlain Towers South
It’s unclear exactly how strong Elsa, or the edges of it, would have to be to topple the remaining tower standing in Surfside about the Champlain Towers South condominium building collapsed next week, but officials are worried it could happen. They’ve also said that strong winds or other conditions could delay the continued search through the rubble for more than 100 missing people.
On Saturday morning, officials announced that the upright portion of the doomed Champlain Towers South building will be demolished within days to allow rescue crews to eventually resume searching the site safely, officials said.
“This will protect our search and rescue teams. We don’t know when it could fall over,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said during a press conference on Saturday. “With these gusts, that would create a real severe hazard.”
What will determine how hard Elsa hits Florida?
Forecasters said Elsa’s future path depends on whether the storm is able to maintain that speed or if it is slowed down by wind shear or unfavorable winds.
The westward path is set to take Elsa over the southwest edge of Hispaniola, the island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and near Jamaica on Saturday night before crossing through Cuba on Sunday.
Elsa’s path toward Florida depends, in part, on how many mountains the storm runs over. Its latest projected track takes it across southwest Haiti and southwest Cuba, both highly mountainous areas.
“A track that even just clips those regions ... could be highly disruptive to a circulation, particularly a small one,” tweeted Andy Hazelton, an assistant scientist with the University of Miami and NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division.
Warnings and watches
Cuba has issued a tropical storm warning for the provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos, and a tropical storm watch for the provinces of Mayabeque and Havana. Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba remain on a hurricane watch.
The portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic is under hurricane warning. The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince and the coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the Haiti border are under tropical storm warning. For the Dominican Republic south coast east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano, there’s a tropical storm watch.
Cayman Brac and Little Cayman also are on a tropical storm watch.
