FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Elsa is expected to hit the west coast of Florida somewhere north of Sarasota — possibly in the Tampa Bay area — on Wednesday, potentially at hurricane strength, forecasters said.
Tropical Storm Elsa’s winds were at 70 mph as of 2 p.m. ET Tuesday, just shy of the 74 mph minimum threshold for hurricane status.
Hurricane conditions are expected Tuesday into Wednesday along a portion of the west coast of Florida. A hurricane watch is in effect for the west coast of Florida from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River in Florida’s Big Bend region, according to the National Hurricane Center.
A tornado watch is in effect for South Florida, including Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties, until 11 p.m. due to Elsa’s potential for inclement weather on its east side.
Forecasters say Elsa will continue to track to the north and it is expected to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Hurricane Irma took a similar path in September 2017, according to AccuWeather.
As of 2 p.m., Elsa was 95 miles northwest of Key West and 180 miles south of Tampa, moving north at 9 mph. Its tropical-storm-force winds extended up to 70 miles from Elsa’s center.
More than 20 counties along Florida’s west coast are under tropical storm warnings and 12 are under storm surge warnings ahead of Elsa’s arrival, according to Gov. Ron DeSantis.
“We don’t anticipate any widespread evacuations as a result of this storm at this point,” he said Tuesday morning.
Elsa, the earliest-forming fifth storm in recorded history, formed Friday and became the season’s first hurricane before it weakened back to a tropical storm Saturday morning over Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
And it continues to be a record-breaker, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert and research scientist at Colorado State University.
Klotzbach said Tuesday that Elsa now holds the record for the fastest-moving hurricane in the tropical Atlantic, and it is also the record-setting eighth-consecutive Atlantic basin hurricane to undergo rapid intensification, which occurs when wind speeds increase by 35 mph or more in a 24-hour period.
“There have been quite a few hurricanes that have been faster moving, but these have been at higher latitudes. Higher latitude hurricanes often move very quickly, as they interact with the jet stream. For example, Hurricane Irene in 1999 was moving at over 60 mph when it was starting to undergo extratropical transition.”
Warm water and low wind shear were the prime components for Elsa’s quick transition from tropical storm to hurricane last Friday when its wind speed went from 50 mph to 85 mph, he said, adding that those same two components led to rapid intensification for last year’s last seven hurricanes.
The list includes Teddy, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon Zeta, Eta and Iota from the record-breaking 2020 season, and now Elsa in 2021.
“The environment last year was generally very conducive for rapid intensification, that is, we had warmer than normal water, especially in the western Atlantic, combined with much lower vertical wind shear than normal — thanks in large part to the moderate La Niña we had last hurricane season,” Klotzbach said in an email.
“Warm waters are critical for rapid intensification, but so is low to moderate vertical wind shear. If the shear is too strong, storms still have a hard time intensifying, even if the waters are extremely warm. Elsa formed over water, which was just slightly warmer than normal, but the shear was much weaker than normal for this time of year.”
The potential for localized flooding and tornadoes will increase as the day goes on.
Squalls should be out of the area by nightfall although some rain showers could still be around Wednesday.
Tampa International Airport is suspending commercial operations at 5 p.m. and suspending cargo operations at 10 p.m. The airport is scheduled to reopen at 10 a.m. Wednesday.
The Monroe County School District closed schools and offices south of Marathon. But schools north of Marathon are scheduled to be open all day and some businesses on Key West’s well-known Duval Street were planning on opening Tuesday afternoon.
Monroe County offices south of Craig Key, at Mile Marker 72, are scheduled to be closed all day Tuesday. County offices north of Craig Key will be open as normal Tuesday.
A storm surge warning remained in effect from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the next 24 hours. Elsa’s storm surge was estimated to range from 1 to 5 feet.
Rainfall from Elsa is forecast at 3 to 5 inches, with localized maximum totals up to 8 inches, through Wednesday in the Florida Keys and the southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula,
Amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches, are expected across the rest of Florida through Wednesday, experts said. The coastal Southeast, including Georgia, will also be impacted.
The rain may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding in South Florida through Wednesday morning.
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(Staff writer Angie DiMichele contributed to this report.)
