The governments of Mexico, Belize and Honduras have issued storm warnings as a weather system that has already caused at least six deaths was designated a tropical storm by the US National Hurricane Center.
Tropical Storm Earl intensified on Tuesday, and is expected to move west, hammering parts of Central America with strong winds and heavy rain.
Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the US National Hurricane Center, called the storm conditions a “triple threat” for the expected wind, rainfall and rising seas.
“Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50mph [85kph] with higher gusts,” an advisory from the National Hurricane Center said. Water levels in the Yucatán peninsula could be raised up to four feet by the tropical storm.
Some countries issued warnings even before Earl was named as a tropical storm. Jamaica’s meteorological service posted a storm watch on Monday and advised its fishermen to evacuate immediately.
Jamaica is forecast to get an additional 2-4in of rain as the storm moves south-west of the island. An average of 8-12in is expected in Belize, Honduras, Guatemala and the Yucatán peninsula.
In Mexico and Belize, there is “a serious, life-threatening threat of flash floods and mudslides”, Feltgen said, with potential for 16in of rain.
A Hurricane Watch & Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for Belize & portions of the Yucatan Peninsula #Earl pic.twitter.com/Fmyp2Hfmgx
— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) August 2, 2016
Storm conditions should reach the coast of Honduras
on Tuesday night, then approach Belize and Mexico by Wednesday night. The storm is expected to strengthen before it reaches the Yucatán peninsula.
On Sunday, while still categorized as a weaker tropical wave, Earl knocked down power lines in the Dominican Republic. A resultant fire killed six people riding a bus on their way home from the beach.
Tropical Storm Earl is the fifth named storm of the 2016 season, which Feltgen said is earlier than the typical climatological schedule. The average day of the fifth named storm is 31 August, he said.
The meteorologist and writer Eric Holthaus argued in his newsletter that the National Hurricane Center was too late in designating the storm system as a tropical storm.
“This exact scenario happens almost every year: a quick-forming tropical storm or hurricane strikes land with less media attention than it should have received, or with extra confusion, because a meteorological criteria [sic] wasn’t met,” Holthaus wrote.
Instead, naming a tropical storm before it meets the technical requirements for the name could ensure better preparedness and more lives saved.
Holthaus praised Jamaica’s weather service for issuing a warning ahead of the National Hurricane Center.
Feltgen noted that the decision to issue a warning is up to the affected countries, not the National Hurricane Center.
“There are very strict criteria for a tropical storm and this did not meet that criteria until this morning,” Feltgen said. “We’re not going to call something a tropical storm if it isn’t.” One identifying characteristic is closed circulation, meaning a rotating area of low pressure, according to Feltgen.
The National Hurricane Center is developing a system to issue warnings and forecasts “prior to genesis” as a tropical storm, Feltgen said. The center hopes to have it in place for the 2017 hurricane season.
