FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. _ Tropical Storm Dorian picked up strength overnight and is expected to hit Puerto Rico later Wednesday with heavy winds before getting even stronger on its way to the Bahamas and then Florida, where it is forecast to make landfall as a Category 2 storm over the weekend, the National Hurricane Center said in its 8 a.m. update Wednesday.
"Although weakening is possible after Dorian moves across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the storm is forecast to strengthen late this week and this weekend while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas," Senior Hurricane Specialist Lixion Avila wrote in the hurricane center's latest advisory.
At 8 a.m. Dorian was positioned about 60 miles southeast of St. Croix with maximum winds of 60 mph _ a 10 mph increase from Tuesday _ as it moved northwest at 13 mph.
During the last 12 hours or so, Dorian has shifted slightly to the north. The Florida Keys and lower part of Miami-Dade County are no longer in the so-called "cone of concern." But hurricane forecasters are reminding people to be aware that storm path forecasts five days out are notoriously sketchy _ and could be off by 200 miles.
No matter what happens, Dorian is expected to drench the Florida peninsula with 4 to 8 inches of rain and, in isolated areas, up to 10 inches, according to the hurricane center. Significant amounts of rain are also expected in Puerto Rico, the British Virgin Islands, Haiti and the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas.
The most recent track forecast has Dorian on a path toward the east coast of Central Florida with a potential landfall happening sometime between late Saturday night and late Sunday into Monday morning.
The most recent intensity forecast is also pretty uncertain when it comes to how strong the storm will be by the time it reaches Florida.
As of early Wednesday, the hurricane center was predicting Dorian would reach hurricane strength sometime over the next two days and peak at 100 mph, Category 2, strength within five days.
Still, "uncertainty in the intensity forecast late this week remains higher than usual due to a large spread in the model guidance," the hurricane center said.
The major make-or-break point in Dorian's path that's also contributing to the uncertainty is how the storm will interact with Hispaniola, basically the land mass that includes the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and Puerto Rico.
Whether these islands and their mountains will weaken Dorian, or not, remains to be seen.
Puerto Rico is still recovering from the devastation of 2017's Hurricane Maria.
The director of the National Hurricane Center, Kenneth Graham, said Tuesday in an interview on WSVN-Ch. 7 that there are so many unknowns that it's hard to predict Dorian's impacts on South Florida.
"It's such an undetermined situation here. If it's a weaker storm you can see some gusty winds and some rainfall but if it stays stronger _ right now we're looking at the potential for a tropical storm," he told the station.
"So, preparedness is everything, it's having that plan ready just in case," Graham said.
Due to the tropical storm, Miami-based Royal Caribbean rerouted its Symphony of the Seas, Allure of the Seas and Harmony of the Seas ships from eastern to western Caribbean routes. "We continue to monitor the path of Tropical Storm Dorian and potential impact to our vessels and will communicate any scheduling changes to our guests," said spokeswoman Melissa Charbonneau.
Carnival Cruise line, based in Doral, issued a statement saying it, too, is monitoring Dorian. "The safety of our guests and crew is our number one priority and our ships will remain a safe distance from the storm at all times. In the event any changes to our itineraries are necessary, we will update our guests accordingly."
Carnival said all if its ships that call on ports in the Caribbean and the Bahamas are avoiding the storm.
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Six became Tropical Storm Erin late Tuesday. By Wednesday Erin was churning in the Atlantic about 265 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., with winds measuring 40 mph. It was posing no immediate threat to the United States.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but 95% of storms are produced during the peak period from mid-August to late October, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has warned that conditions could be favorable for more dangerous storms than initially projected.
(Staff writer Johnny Diaz contributed to this report)
