FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. _ The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions impacting Florida from Dorian has increased as the disturbance heads for Puerto Rico, the National Hurricane Center said in its 8 p.m. EDT update Tuesday.
Dorian is forecast to be very close to hurricane strength as it approaches Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the center's latest tropical outlook said.
"Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico Wednesday night," forecasters said.
After moving beyond Puerto Rico, Dorian was forecast to "gradually restrengthen on Thursday and Friday," according to the center.
The hurricane center forecast Tuesday was continuing to show Dorian either remaining as a tropical storm or edging very close to hurricane status by the time the storm starts knocking on Florida's door.
South Floridians could expect 3 to 5 inches of rain in coming days with as much as 7 inches in some spots and should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place, the hurricane center said.
The most recent track forecast has Dorian on a path toward the east coast of Central Florida with a potential landfall happening Sunday.
But hurricane forecasters are reminding people to be aware that storm path forecasts five days out are notoriously sketchy _ and could be off by 200 miles.
The most recent intensity forecast is also pretty uncertain when it comes to how strong the storm will be by the time it reaches Florida.
Some forecast models were forecasting a slightly stronger Dorian than they had been predicting earlier Tuesday while other forecast models were projecting that Dorian would be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Sunday.
For its official intensity forecast the National Hurricane Center was keeping Dorian's peak strength at a high-end tropical storm with maximum winds measuring 70 mph. (Hurricanes are classified by minimum peak winds of 74 mph.)
The range of possibilities meant that forecasters simply couldn't yet predict with any certainty how strong Dorian will be by the weekend.
"Given the large spread in the guidance, there remains lower-than-normal confidence in the intensity forecast, especially on days 4 and 5," a forecast discussion posted on the National Hurricane Center's website at 5 p.m. on Tuesday stated.
The major make-or-break point in Dorian's path that's also contributing to the uncertainty is how the storm will interact with Hispaniola, basically the land mass that includes the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and Puerto Rico. Whether these islands and their mountains will weaken Dorian remains to be seen.
On Tuesday, Tropical Storm Dorian brought heavy rains and gusty winds as it moved over the islands that form the eastern gateway to the Caribbean.
At 8 p.m. Tuesday, the center of Dorian was located about more than 300 miles east of Puerto Rico with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and moving toward the northwest at 13 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
"On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight, pass over or near western and central Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and move near or just east of eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night," Senior Hurricane Specialist Stacy Stewart wrote in a Tuesday evening public advisory.
"On Thursday night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas."
Dorian could strengthen to a hurricane before it reaches Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, forecasters said, prompting a hurricane watch for both.
A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.
Puerto Rico is still recovering from the devastation of 2017's Hurricane Maria.
By Thursday night and Friday, the National Hurricane Center official forecast had Dorian reaching the Bahamas as a tropical storm.
The director of the National Hurricane Center, Kenneth Graham, said Tuesday in an interview on WSVN-TV that there are so many unknowns that it's hard to predict Dorian's impacts on South Florida.
"It's such an undetermined situation here. If it's a weaker storm you can see some gusty winds and some rainfall but if it stays stronger _ right now we're looking at the potential for a tropical storm," he told the station.
"So, preparedness is everything, it's having that plan ready just in case," Graham said.
Because of the tropical storm, Miami-based Royal Caribbean rerouted its Symphony of the Seas, Allure of the Seas and Harmony of the Seas ships from eastern to western Caribbean routes. "We continue to monitor the path of Tropical Storm Dorian and potential impact to our vessels and will communicate any scheduling changes to our guests," said spokeswoman Melissa Charbonneau.
Carnival Cruise line, based in Doral, issued a statement saying it, too, was monitoring Dorian. "The safety of our guests and crew is our No. 1 priority and our ships will remain a safe distance from the storm at all times. In the event any changes to our itineraries are necessary, we will update our guests accordingly."
Carnival said all of its ships that call on ports in the Caribbean and the Bahamas were avoiding the storm.
Dorian is a relatively small storm physically with tropical storm-strength winds extending up to 45 miles out from the core. The storm's winds, at 50 mph, did not change during the overnight hours.
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Six was churning in the Atlantic about 315 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., on Tuesday with winds measuring 35 mph. It was no threat to the United States.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but 95% of storms are produced during the peak period from mid-August to late October, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has warned that conditions could be favorable for more dangerous storms than initially projected.
