FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. _ A tropical depression that formed in the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday is expected to become a tropical storm on Tuesday night and a hurricane later in the week. If it does become the next tropical storm before a newly emerging disturbance behind it in the Atlantic, it would become Tropical Storm Jerry.
The depression, about 1,000 miles east of the eastern rim of the Caribbean, was forecast to travel toward the general vicinity of the Bahamas, according to the National Hurricane Center's 5 p.m. EDT Tuesday public advisory. It should be stressed, however, that it is still too early to predict whether the storm would actually strike the Bahamas or steer clear of the island chain.
"The track guidance is in relatively good agreement through 72 hours, and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward Islands in about 3 days," said National Hurricane Center spokesman and meteorologist Dennis Feltgen in an email.
The Leeward Islands are the islands on the eastern rim of the Caribbean, where the Caribbean Sea merges with the Atlantic Ocean.
"It is too early to determine what impacts could occur in any part of the Bahamas," Feltgen said.
So far, most of the so-called spaghetti models are predicting the storm will take a sharp curve north into the open Atlantic and avoid land altogether, while others are steering it closer to islands like Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
The National Hurricane Center's forecast path takes into account multiple forecast models.
It's still very early, though. Accurately predicting whether the storm will strike a particular island or even the U.S. at this time is not possible to do with much certainty, forecasters routinely say. It's impossible to say if the storm will pose any threat to Florida or anywhere in the southeastern U.S.
"It is far too early to determine what, if any, impacts there could be to Florida or any part of the U.S.," Feltgen said. "We are in the peak of the hurricane season, so residents should make sure their hurricane plan is ready to be used if needed."
The depression was churning to the northwest at a decent clip of 12 mph but was expected to step on the gas and increase its forward speed over the next few days.
The storm is expected to reach the islands in the northeastern corner of the Caribbean on Thursday night or Friday. By that point it's expected to be a hurricane.
Meanwhile, Bermuda is under a tropical storm watch as Hurricane Humberto has grown stronger, with the storm's winds now reaching 100 mph, making Humberto a Category 2 hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Humberto, heading away from the U.S., could potentially be a major hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, which would mean it would be packing winds of at least 111 mph, strong enough to rip roofs off houses and leave widespread devastation.
Humberto is a big one.
"Humberto is a large hurricane," the National Hurricane Center said in the 11 a.m. Tuesday advisory. "Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles."
The storm's core is expected to approach Bermuda on Wednesday night. The tropical storm watch for the island means that tropical storm
Meanwhile, in the Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Storm Imelda has formed. The Texas coastline from Sargent to Port Bolivar is under a tropical storm warning, meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected there in the next few hours.
For the U.S. over the next few days, Hurricane Humberto is bringing large waves to beaches from Central Florida to North Carolina. Swimmers and surfers should be aware that life-threatening rip currents are a very real possibility, as are life-threatening surf conditions.
