MIAMI _ The National Hurricane Center sent its Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft into a disturbance churning just south of the Florida Keys and the north end of the Bahamas on Saturday morning.
Just before 5 p.m., the National Hurricane Center announced a tropical depression, called Tropical Depression One, has formed off the coast of east-central Florida, about 110 miles from the Space coast.
A tropical storm watch was issued for a portion of the North Carolina coast. The current projection of the tropical depression shows it continuing to travel up the east coast of the U.S. and briefly touching North Carolina's east coast.
The center also said dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to spread northward from Florida to the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days.
In its 2 p.m. advisory, the center said the low pressure system had become better defined and its associated showers and thunderstorms were gradually organizing.
"If these trends continue, advisories will likely be initiated on this system as a tropical or subtropical depression later today," the hurricane center said.
A tropical storm watch could be issued for the North Carolina coast later Saturday.
The center gave the system a near 100% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical storm sometime Saturday afternoon or evening. If so, it would be the first named storm of the 2020 hurricane season.
Its name would be Arthur, and this would become the sixth season in a row in which a named storm has formed before the official June 1 start of hurricane season.
Think of it like a false start at an Olympics swimming or track and field race. There, you may get one chance to jump the gun before being disqualified. Nature, however, plays by its own rules.
The system is expected to move north-northeastward over the Atlantic waters east of Florida. On Sunday, and into early in the week, Arthur _ if it is named _ is expected to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic near or east of the Carolinas, the hurricane center said.
At the most practical sense, the state is getting another run through of what to expect for the next six months or so until hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
Prepare. Prepare. Prepare.
"This is a reminder that hurricane season is coming up real soon and a good reminder to start thinking about what your risk is and get ready in the general sense," Michael Brennan, branch chief of the center's Hurricane Specialist Unit, told the Miami Herald earlier this week.
But in the immediate sense, it means more unsettled weather for parts of the state, which could mean heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of east-central Florida and the northwestern Bahamas through Saturday, the hurricane center said.
Hazardous marine conditions, too, And these will spread northward Saturday into Monday, likely causing dangerous surf and rip currents along much of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of the U.S.
South Florida still has a chance for thunderstorms for the rest of the week, according to the National Weather Service in Miami's hazardous weather outlook. Gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, lightning, and waterspouts are all possibilities with the strongest storms.
In other words, we are in the summer weather pattern, prematurely, too, perhaps.
"We're now on the south side of the departing disturbance," said CBS4 meteorologist Craig Setzer in a tweet. A few showers will linger Saturday and Sunday but with warmer sun, then a few afternoon storms.
Sunday's high is expected to hit 90 degrees in South Florida, according to the National Weather Service. Tuesday through Friday temperatures should hit the mid- to low-80s and the rain chance goes up again to 50% Tuesday and 70% on Wednesday.
The Florida Keys and Bradenton should see a similar pattern _ albeit with a lower rain chance with 40% predicted Tuesday and Wednesday from Key West to Key Largo, and Tuesday's 50% in Bradenton the best chance for a soaking in the Tampa Bay area, according to the weather service.
"Looks like true 'rainy season' pattern with steamy sun, PM storms each day ahead," Setzer said.
The National Weather Service in Miami posted rainfall totals for Friday, a day marked by flood and wind advisories.
The Fort Lauderdale area of Broward County saw the most rain, with 2 to 3 inches reported.
Miami saw 1.5 to 2 inches. Homestead in South Miami-Dade, Boca Raton in Palm Beach County and Naples, on the east coast, each had half an inch to an inch.
West Palm Beach and Jupiter on the east coast each had a quarter to half an inch of rain, as did Immokalee on the opposite coast according to the weather service.
