FT. LAUDERDALE, Fla. _ There's a good chance a tropical cyclone will form over a far-off area of the Atlantic Ocean later this week, say forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
The patch of showers and thunderstorms has been given a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next two days forecasters said in their 8 a.m. advisory Wednesday.
The system has become better-defined but the thunderstorm activity associated with it is not well-organized, the advisory said.
As far as whether the potential system would affect Florida at all, it was "way too soon to say," said John Cangialosi, a hurricane specialist.
The cone of error depicts a potential path heading northwest toward the general vicinity of the eastern Caribbean.
But it was still far off _ about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and 2,000 miles away from the eastern-most Caribbean islands, according to the hurricane center's 2 p.m. Tuesday update.
The system did not become better organized on Tuesday but conditions still favor the formation of a tropical cyclone, forecasters said.
It's unusual for a tropical cyclone to form that far out in the Atlantic at this time of year, but not unprecedented.
"It isn't in the prime development area for this month," Cangialosi said.
In June and July, storms tend to form in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico area. In August, the central and eastern Atlantic starts to become the prime spot for tropical development.
Even if a tropical depression forms, it's not as certain to strengthen. Conditions ahead of it, toward the Caribbean, aren't as conducive to tropical systems at this point, Cangialosi said.
Tropical depressions are the least powerful form of tropical cyclone, and have maximum sustained winds of 38 mph.
The term "tropical cyclone" is an umbrella term that refers to tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes. Tropical storms are characterized by maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph while hurricanes have winds of 74 mph or higher.
If this disturbance _ known currently as Invest 94L, which basically means it's an area of interest in the Atlantic _ becomes a tropical storm, it would be Don, the fourth named storm in a so-far busy hurricane season.
The first, Tropical Storm Arlene, was noteworthy because it formed over the open Atlantic in April, which doesn't happen often.
June also saw more action than usual. According to forecasters, a named storm forms in June once every other year. This June saw two: tropical storms Bret and Cindy.
"In terms of the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the Atlantic basin so far in 2017 is above normal," states a monthly tropical weather summary for June on the National Hurricane Center's website.
But Cangialosi said one busy month doesn't mean anything in terms of how busy, or not, the rest of the season will be.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
