The UFC’s latest pay-per-view offering sees two of the most dominant champions in the organization return to action in Houston at UFC 247. Light heavyweight champion Jon Jones will look to add another victim to his growing list when he faces undefeated challenger Dominick Reyes, while women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko puts her title on the line against Katlyn Chookagian.
Both challengers are long-odds underdogs to capture championship gold, but can an argument be made for either contender causing an upset? That’s the question MMA Junkie’s Farah Hannoun, Simon Head and Nolan King attempt to answer in the latest edition of Triple Take.
Farah Hannoun: “And Still” – Jones and Shevchenko retain
Jones and Shevchenko are two of the most dominant champions in the UFC.
UFC light heavyweight champ Jones has yet to lose, minus that one disqualification on his record. He has run through competition across all generations and has continued to reign supreme. He’s also faced every kind of opponent, from striking specialist Lyoto Machida, to the tall and rangy Alexander Gustafsson, to Olympic-level wrestler Daniel Cormier, and he has prevailed in all tests.
Saturday, Jones takes on undefeated Reyes, who has shown power and accuracy in his hands. He’s also one of the taller opponents Jones has faced, which at times, has proven to be a little tougher of a challenge for him.
But Jones comes at you with different techniques on the feet, a strong clinch, as well as the ability to take things to the mat. He’s comfortable everywhere, and quite frankly, there’s nothing he hasn’t seen in the octagon before. Can Reyes catch him? Sure – it’s a fight, and Reyes is talented. But I think Jones will be too much on the night and has far more experience than Reyes, who’s only competed six times in the UFC.
UFC flyweight champ Shevchenko is another very well-rounded fighter. The former bantamweight was forced to compete in a weight class in which she was undersized, yet was able to beat the likes of former 135-pound champ Holly Holm, as well as Julianna Pena.
But once the UFC 125-pound division was introduced, Shevchenko found her home. She captured the vacant flyweight title with a dominant win over former strawweight queen Joanna Jedrzejczyk and already has notched two title defenses.
Shevchenko has a phenomenal striking background, mixing it up with punches, kicks, elbows and knees. She has used her ever-improving ground game in wins over Pena and Jedrzejczyk and her undeniable striking power when she knocked out Jessica Eye with a brutal head kick.
Against Chookagian, she will have a 4-inch height disadvantage. Chookagian is very comfortable and well-versed on her feet and is a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. But I’d give the edge to Shevchenko in every aspect of the fight. I just think she does everything a little better than Chookagian, and has certainly faced tougher competition.
Chookagian will definitely be game, though, and I don’t expect Shevchenko to take her lightly. But ultimately, I see Shevchenko’s hand being raised by the end of the night.
Simon Head: Work rate, range and gas tank all give Chookagian an outside shot at victory
I don’t think it’s unfair to suggest that few will be expecting Chookagian to get her hand raised when she faces Shevchenko at UFC 247. But while Shevchenko’s excellence inside the octagon means she’s a justifiable favorite, I also think it’s a little too easy to rule out the qualities that could see Chookagian score an upset victory.
Shevchenko’s world-class abilities are well known, but Chookagian will step into the octagon on fight night with certain advantages of her own. The challenger will have the edge in both height and reach, and also produces a higher strike output in her fights. Her 4.28 significant strikes per minute stack up favorably compared to Shevchenko’s 3.02.
Despite that higher work rate in the striking department, Chookagian should also have little problem when it comes to her gas tank. She has regularly outpaced her opponents to claim wins on the scorecards, and also experienced the full five-round title fight duration when she captured the CFFC women’s bantamweight title.
Chookagian’s stick-and-move style may seem straightforward to some, but her output, constant movement and her ability to strike at range has seen her defuse dangerous strikers like Joanne Calderwood and Irene Aldana, and snuff out submission threats from the likes of Alexis Davis and Sijara Eubanks.
Shevchenko, of course, will present the most dangerous test of Chookagian’s career, and from my personal perspective it’s hard to go against the defending champion when it comes to making an outright pick. But if the New Jersey native sticks to her game plan, uses her range and her footwork, and doesn’t get flustered by the big occasion, I believe she has a better chance of outpointing Shevchenko over five rounds than her heavy +675 underdog odds (via BetMGM) might suggest.
Nolan King: Don’t let your Jones victory fatigue underestimate Reyes
Jon Jones is one of the most, if not the most, dominant champions in UFC history. His resume is unlike any other in MMA history, which makes many, including myself, think he’s the pound-for-pound greatest fighter of all time.
That said, there’s no way in hell Dominick Reyes should be counted out. Sadly, he is being grossly discredited by many.
Yes, Jones is likely the greatest ever. Yes, he’s defeated many fighters who have come along and said the same things as Reyes is saying before this fight. But Reyes isn’t any of those guys Jones has already beat. He’s not Thiago Santos. He’s not Daniel Cormier. He’s not Alexander Gustafsson. He’s Dominick Reyes.
Reyes’ rise up the divisional ladder has been swift and impressive. When was the last time there was this much deserved hype for a fighter rising through the 205-pound division?
Look at the times other all-time greats have suffered their first UFC losses.
“Henry Cejudo already lost to Demetrious Johnson – he’s not going to beat him in the rematch.”
“Chris Weidman? Geez, we’re really reaching for contenders to fight Anderson Silva.”
I’m not saying Reyes will win. I simply think he could win, which is more credit than most people are giving him. The Jones victory fatigue is real. People have seen Jones win so many times, they’ve let their guard down.
I just hope for Jones’ sake he isn’t letting his guard down, too. Reyes is legit. Win or lose Saturday, I expect him to show that.
UFC 247 takes place Saturday at Toyota Center in Houston. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.
