This past Saturday in the UFC on ESPN+ 16 main event, Justin Gaethje kept his train rollin’ with a third straight first-round finish. After his TKO of Donald Cerrone, Gaethje put himself right into the lightweight title picture. It’s been presumed that champion Khabib Nurmagomedov should fight Tony Ferguson next. Should that be the case? And how should the rest of the top of the 155-pound class be sorted out for the rest of 2019 and into early 2020? MMA Junkie’s Mike Bohn, Matt Erickson and Simon Samano sound off in the latest edition of Triple Take.
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Mike Bohn: The fights to make should be as straightforward as this
The UFC lightweight division has been the deepest and most captivating in the organization for nearly four years, and when it comes to the top of the class, it’s pretty much impossible to go wrong from a matchmaking perspective. You could pretty much throw darts at a board with anyone in the top six, and you wouldn’t come away with a bad pairing. But at this particularly moment, the order of things should be relatively easy.
Starting with the title: Anything other than Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson is pure sacrilege. Not only is it *the* fight to make at 155 pounds, but it’s the most important fight the UFC can book on its entire roster. It’s the champion vs. the consensus No. 1 contender, and a 12-fight winning streak vs. another 12-fight winning streak.
There’s a reason the UFC has booked Nurmagomedov (28-0 MMA, 12-0 UFC) vs. Ferguson (25-3 MMA, 15-1 UFC) four times before, and while there will always be the fear of it falling apart until they’re actually in the octagon, its needed for the sanctity and history of the sport.
Justin Gaethje has put himself in good position to fight for the title, too, but he’s not deserving before Ferguson. It would be totally fine if Gaethje wanted to wait on the sidelines for the winner, or be on standby in case a replacement is needed. That’s probably the wisest option for him.
Well, unless Conor McGregor decides to come back. “The Notorious” is the dark cloud hanging over the weight class, and while I’m not entirely convinced we ever see him fight again, if he does return, then Gaethje should be the opponent.
Gaethje (21-2 MMA, 4-2 UFC) vs. McGregor (21-4 MMA, 9-2 UFC) is good fun from a style perspective, makes sense in terms of the rankings and would keep both men busy until Nurmagomedov and Ferguson settle their business. It’s an undeniable No. 1 contender fight.
That leaves top contenders Dustin Poirier and Donald Cerrone as the odd men out, and as I suggested in my post-UFC on ESPN+ 16 matchmaker column, it makes all the sense to put those two together.
It’s almost a surprise Poirier (25-6 MMA, 17-5 UFC) and Cerrone (36-13 MMA, 23-10 UFC) haven’t fought yet given they came from the WEC and have more than 50 UFC fights combined, and with both coming off high-profile losses, it’s perfectly logical.
If it was as easy for the UFC to make these fights as writing this column is, then we would see every matchup I just listed. Some variation of the promotion or fighters shooting themselves in the foot seems to routinely occur in these situations, though, so it’s best not to get your hopes up.
Next page – Matt Erickson: Fool me once …
Matt Erickson: Fool me once …
George W. Bush once infamously spoke of getting fooled.
“There’s an old saying in Tennessee – I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee – that says, ‘Fool me once, shame on … shame on you. Fool me … you can’t get fooled again.”
It was vintage ‘W,’ flubbing his lines. The saying, of course, goes like this: “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
And it’s in that spirit I have to go into classic “MattE the Contrarian” mode when I say the next lightweight title fight I’d book, if I was calling the shots at the UFC, is not champion Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson. Sorry, Anthony. No soup for you.
It’s Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje.
Does Ferguson deserve a title shot? Oh, almost certainly. But we’ve been down this road before. We’ve been down this road four times, in fact. Four times, the UFC has booked Nurmagomedov vs. Ferguson. And four times, it’s been scrapped.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me a third and fourth time … you can’t get fooled again. And I don’t want to get fooled again on this Khabib-Tony thing.
It seems like the ultimate tempting of the fickle fingers of MMA fate to book that fight a fifth time and expect it to actually happen. So I’d just leave it alone and hope things work out in other ways.
Nurmagomedov-Gaethje is a completely acceptable title fight. Gaethje’s success his past three wins playing defense in the standup game is admirable. Against Nurmagomedov, he’d have to worry less about getting hit on the feet and worry more about just staying on his feet, lest he fall victim to takedowns that would stifle his best chances at winning the title. But if he can stay standing, he’s a threat to put the champ down as long as he’s got guns to sling.
In the meantime, what should happen with Ferguson, who would no doubt lose his proverbial “ish” if Gaethje leapfrogged him? Give him the kind of money fight that would make up for not having a title shot: Conor McGregor. That fight could sell like gangbusters. It gives McGregor a true test when (if?) he comes back. And for Ferguson, a win would give him the kind of leverage that would lead to a title fight regardless of who holds the belt.
And hanging back just a little in the pack are a pair of old-school sluggers who could put on one for the ages. Match up Dustin Poirier and Donald Cerrone.
If Ferguson beats McGregor, and Nurmagomedov still holds the belt after a fight with Gaethje, then fine – let’s revisit this whole Khabib-Tony thing a fifth time if we have to.
But if we can delay it just a little while longer, it might be for the best. In essence, the UFC should book Nurmagomedov-Ferguson a fifth time right now at its own peril. Don’t get fooled again until you absolutely have no other choice.
Next page – Simon Samano: Conor McGregor doesn’t factor in, and here’s why
Simon Samano: Conor McGregor doesn’t factor in, and here’s why
There are four fights involving the fighters at the top of the UFC lightweight division that could – and should – be made in the next six months or so, and they go a little something like this:
- Champ Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson for the title, because duh. I don’t care about getting fooled a fifth time. I’ll gladly take that risk for a fight that would be a damn shame if we never see it.
- Justin Gaethje vs. Khabib-Ferguson winner, because Gaethje is on fire right now. Sometimes for worse but mostly for better, Gaethje has more than lived up to his “Highlight” nickname since joining the promotion in 2017. And with three impressive first-round knockouts in a row, give that man his shot at UFC gold.
- Dustin Poirier vs. Donald Cerrone, because who doesn’t want to see two fan favorites go toe to toe. Isn’t this the type of fight we live for? Plus, with both guys coming off high-profile losses, a win for either man keeps him in the title hunt, and you definitely want at least one of them to stay there.
Where’s Conor McGregor in all this? Oh yeah, him. Glad you asked.
McGregor vs. Gaethje is a popular suggestion, and I understand why. It’s a “winnable” fight for McGregor against a guy willing to stand in front of him, and McGregor definitely needs a win in the worst way. But all of this is assuming McGregor ever fights again.
The way I see it, the matchup to lure him back needs to be big. It needs to be enticing. It needs to be worth his time. Gaethje isn’t that.
But you know what would be? The winner of the “Baddest Motherf****r” title fight between Nate Diaz and Jorge Masvidal at UFC 244. If I’m McGregor, that’s the splashiest fight you could possibly come back to: either a trilogy we all want to see, or against the other straight gangster who’s called you out. Both “winnable,” if you want to call it that. Thing is, it doesn’t even have to happen at lightweight – although I suspect it would against Diaz.
Either way, that’s the way to go with McGregor. I realize he’s ranked No. 3 in the official UFC rankings, which technically means he’s in the title picture, but keep him away from the belt. We need guys committed to the game to fight for gold. McGregor isn’t that.
And the UFC lightweight division can live happily ever after.
