Gubernatorial and state legislative elections are taking place in five states in 2019. These elections could affect existing Republican trifectas in Kentucky and Mississippi and the Democratic trifecta in New Jersey. New trifectas could potentially form in Louisiana and Virginia.
A trifecta, which describes when one party holds the governorship, a majority in the state senate, and a majority in the state house, helps that party advance its agenda while requiring less support from members of the minority party. Nationally, Republicans hold 22 trifectas to Democrats’ 14.
Based on the number of seats which would need to be flipped to change control of each legislative chamber and on gubernatorial race ratings from political forecasters, Ballotpedia has rated the vulnerability of existing trifectas and the chances of new trifectas forming.
We rate Mississippi’s Republican trifecta as moderately vulnerable and Kentucky’s Republican trifecta as somewhat vulnerable. New Jersey’s Democratic trifecta is not vulnerable.
In Louisiana, there is a slight possibility of a Republican trifecta forming and a low possibility of a Democratic trifecta forming. In Virginia, there is a moderate possibility of a Democratic trifecta forming and no possibility of a Republican trifecta forming.
In the 2018 elections, four of 26 existing Republican trifectas were broken. The trifectas in Michigan, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin were among the five that we rated highly vulnerable that year, while the trifecta in Kansas was among four we rated moderately vulnerable.
Six new Democratic trifectas were created, including in all four of the states we rated as having a moderate possibility of gaining a Democratic trifecta (Colorado, Illinois, New Mexico, and New York). Democrats also gained trifectas in Maine and Nevada, which were among the six states we rated as toss-ups.
Additional reading:
https://ballotpedia.org/State_government_trifectas
https://ballotpedia.org/Trifecta_vulnerability_in_the_2018_elections
https://ballotpedia.org/Historical_and_potential_changes_in_trifectas
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