Deshaun Watson was a nightmare for two quarters. Trevor Lawrence was even worse over a full game.
That proved to be the difference between a comeback win and an embarrassing loss in Week 10. Watson was able to play roughly average football and cashed in a phenomenal defensive effort as the Cleveland Browns upset the Baltimore Ravens in Maryland. Lawrence never found any kind of rhythm as the San Francisco 49ers bullied his Jacksonville Jaguars for a full hour of game time en route to a 34-3 frogstomping.
These were two bad performances. But were they the worst of the week?
Fortunately, we’ve got tools to better understand just how damaging these underwhelming performances were. Using the advanced stat expected points added (EPA) can gauge how much a quarterback brings to the table compared to a typical player.
By comparing each passer’s Week 10 EPA against their 2022 and 2023 combined average, we get a better picture of just how frustrating their days were. And we can find both of those thanks to The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his incredibly useful stats sites RBSDM.com and HabitatRing.com. So let’s take a look at who disappointed the most in the 10th Sunday of the 2023 season.
4
Honorable mention: Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: -1.1
Week 10 EPA: 2.5
Difference: 3.6 points better
Watson started his day with a pick-six. By the end of the first quarter he’d completed a single pass. At halftime he’d completed six of his 20 throws.
ARE YOU KIDDING US @kyledhamilton_?!?!?!
PICK SIX!!!!
Tune in now on FOX! pic.twitter.com/ojlcFMT1lp
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) November 12, 2023
It’s stunning he was even in position to win this game, thanks in large part to a stout all-around effort that picked off Lamar Jackson twice and blocked a field goal. With the game on the line Watson made a couple clutch throws and delivered a crucial scramble that led to the game-winning field goal. He was also strip sacked; only a recovery by offensive lineman Myles Teller saved the game from ending there.
The Browns are 6-3 and in prime playoff position, but it’s more in spite of their quarterback play than as a result of it. The silver lining is that Watson doesn’t have to do much to outplay expectations. His EPA/game since being acquired by the Browns — despite more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL would later describe as “predatory behavior” — is a forgettable -1.1.
That’s what Cleveland traded away three first round picks for. That’s who Cleveland gave an unprecedented, fully guaranteed $230 million extension. The Browns are getting replacement-level quarterbacking from the player they sold their soul to acquire. The fact Week 10 was a step in the right direction only points out how far backward he’d gone.
3
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 2.4
Week 10 EPA: -2
Difference: 4.4 points worse
Carr hasn’t been great in his first season with the Saints, but he’s been largely inoffensive even at his lowest points. Week 10 was yet another example of sufficient, unimpressive quarterbacking. The veteran dropped back 20 times for just 98 total yards on passing plays, overseeing three three-and-outs and a 27-3 deficit before leaving the game in the third quarter due to injury.
The Saints didn’t score a touchdown until Carr departed midway through the third quarter. Jameis Winston entered the game and immediately revived Chris Olave’s value, targeting the second year wideout en route to six catches, 94 yards and a touchdown.
Jameis to Olave! What a grab
📺: #NOvsMIN on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/kECSNGbyLL pic.twitter.com/cV27iOQ3bG— NFL (@NFL) November 12, 2023
The day ended in disaster thanks to a pair of interceptions, but it was clear who the more explosive quarterback was in this New Orleans offense. It’s never a good sign when your backup enters the game and immediately outplays you. It’s especially grim when that backup is Jameis Winston, a player the Saints have repeatedly shown they don’t trust with a starting role.
2
Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 2.1
Week 10 EPA: -8.9
Difference: 11 points worse
The bloom had to come off Levis’s onion at some point. A Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that sacked him four times and hit him 13 more proved to be his breaking point. Tampa took DeAndre Hopkins out of Tennessee’s tool chest — three catches on eight targets for only 27 yards — and forced the rookie to move the chains elsewhere. That was mostly a non-starter and the Titans spent an entire afternoon searching for the end zone in vain.
Levis, to his credit, tried very hard to turn things around. It’s clear Mike Vrabel gave him the green light to unleash deep balls. But without anyone able to consistently get open, he was left with just one completion that traveled 12-plus yards downfield in 15 tries.
Levis’ average pass traveled 11.2 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. His average completion was 3.7 yards downfield. That’s the second-worst differential of the day, ahead of only Jameis Winston. Again, not the company NFL teams want their starting quarterback to keep.
1
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 5.0
Week 10 EPA: -12.6
Difference: 17.6 points worse
Jacksonville had an opportunity to stake its claim as a legitimate contender in Week 10. A visit from the struggling San Francisco 49ers offered a chance for the Jaguars to notch arguably their biggest win of the 2023 season. It would also extend their winning streak to six games and keep a suddenly competent Houston Texans team at arm’s length in the AFC South.
This is not what Jacksonville did. Sunday’s game was, in no uncertain terms, a disaster. Lawrence completed just three passes that traveled more than seven yards downfield, was sacked five times and averaged just 4.6 net yards per dropback while throwing a pair of interceptions.
Defense applying pressure in Pick City!
📺 #SFvsJAX on FOX
📱 NFL+ // https://t.co/KTh0i4nCVJ pic.twitter.com/Ppc3tIgqy3— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) November 12, 2023
Lawrence was pressured repeatedly and had little to offer in response. Adding Calvin Ridley to the lineup was supposed to provide support and a much needed escape option in these situations. On Sunday he had two catches on three targets; it marked the sixth time this season he’s had 40 receiving yards or fewer.
Jacksonville only needed a couple quarters to undo all the good will of a five-game win streak. The Jaguars came off a bye week and looked woefully unprepared for the 49ers defense. There was no silver lining in Week 10, just the lingering suspicion this team cannot be taken seriously.
