WITH the national accounts a sea of red ink, the Morrison government is banking on a vaccine or vaccines to soon appear and tackle COVID-19, and to remove it as a threat in double-quick time.
A number of commentators have pointed to some very optimistic assumptions factored into the budget predictions for employment, economic growth, debt reduction and the like between now and 2024.
Real gross domestic product or GDP is predict to contract by 1.5 per cent this year, yet rise by 4.75 per per cent in 2021-22 - which would be the highest growth rate since 1998-99.
A 7.25 per cent jobless rate - also the highest since the late 1990s - is similarly predicted to improve to 5.5 per cent by 2023-24.
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Perhaps these numbers will stack up.
Perhaps the first vaccine (or vaccines) will soon emerge and eradicate or control a virus that has surprised scientists with its complexity and aggression.
If not, then it's difficult to see these forecasts being met, especially as the economic outlook before the virus was anything but assuring.
Wages growth was anaemic at best.
This budget is built on borrowing, but years of record low interest rates have done little so far, it seems, beyond keeping zombie companies afloat while pushing up house and other asset prices.
COVID-19 has disrupted global supply chains, but most advanced nations are in similar places, economically.
Two alternative policy options - to raise taxes in order to minimise borrowings, and to slowly but steadily raise interest rates in order to reward savers and restore the usefulness of monetary policy - have been studiously ignored by governments and central banks alike. Instead, the consensus is for further heavy borrowing, tax cuts and ramped-up infrastructure spending.
In line with recent federal budgets, the Hunter Region received only modest infrastructure commitments, in the form of the Singleton bypass and the final stage of the Newcastle bypass.
Both projects are viewed as overdue. Newcastle Airport, meanwhile, had hoped for $65 million to improve its tarmac in conjunction with a RAAF upgrade set to proceed early next year.
There are other funding options, but the lack of federal backing may be a worrying signal the government is lukewarm on the airport's aspirations as a regional transport hub.
If so, it should lay its cards on the table.
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